horse racing systems

[nicky g]

Every now and again i see horse (and dog) racing systems predicated on evidence that tote betters over-favour long-shots and under-favour favourites to the extent that under certain conditions backing the favourite can generate a long-term profit. Prominent examples of proponents of these are Leighton Vaughan Williams (who also promotes the idea of the gamblers fallacy, that certain traps and favourites can become profitable if dogs/horses from them have won several times in a row) and Burton Fabricand. I'm guessing that if these really worked everyone would be doing it, and I see no discussion of that kind of thing here, so my thoughts are that this doesn;t really work. Nevertheless I'm intrigued; anyone have any experience of such systems/evidence that such systems definitely do or don't work?

[Ortho]

Your question is simply too general. At least in the UK, where there used to be a pronounced favourite-longshot bias, the market is significantly more efficient and you can't do anything blindly. The vig in US horseracing is huge, and finding overlays in my experience is easiest on 2nd and 3rd favourites, but I'm no expert.

Fabricand's book is widely available and interesting, though I don't recall finding anything that I thought was directly applicable to my betting. I agree with him (I'm going from memory) that the horseracing market is generally quite efficient. You have to do specific homework and find specific bets rather than trying to find a general theory imo.

[nicky g]

[ QUOTE ]
Your question is simply too general. At least in the UK, where there used to be a pronounced favourite-longshot bias, the market is significantly more efficient and you can't do anything blindly. The vig in US horseracing is huge, and finding overlays in my experience is easiest on 2nd and 3rd favourites, but I'm no expert.

Fabricand's book is widely available and interesting, though I don't recall finding anything that I thought was directly applicable to my betting. I agree with him (I'm going from memory) that the horseracing market is generally quite efficient. You have to do specific homework and find specific bets rather than trying to find a general theory imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I noticed that his book seems quite out of date; the Vaughan-Williams book is more recent though I believe. I'm in the UK, not the US, I don;t know if that makes any difference. Sorry for posing such a general question, it's something I know very little about and was just curious.

[Ortho]

The thing is that nothing you read in the UK that was written pre-Betfair is going to have much to do with the current markets imo. Before, the bookies worked from the same general tissue and this could be off at times, and if you bet early you could get good prices before they corrected. Now the Betfair market tends to determine the tissue prices, and the market is considerably sharper. Add to that the fact that there are lots of trader types that tend to take value out of the markets without taking a view, and the markets are much more efficient. On the other hand, if you were a winner in the UK five years ago, you are probably still a winner now because you can now get all the money down on the plays that you want to make, where apparently lots of people used to get backed off from bookmakers when they won.

Before I started poker, I used to play a lot of horseracing on Betfair for small amounts. I think that there is definitely value to be had (at least there was when I was playing) simply by being reasonably clued-up, spotting false favourites, finding underrated horses in the 5-1/10-1 range, etc. but the actual angles tend to come and go and you're going to have to follow the sport (which is boring as hell imo) and watch the markets to get the idea.

But I love gambling books, so I wouldn't put you off reading any of them. I do recognize the Vaughan-Williams book now I've googled it (odd, there's a famous British composer named Vaughan Williams, which put me off when I saw the name).

Imo reading the Racing Post, handicapping and watching the races, and reading the Betfair forum with a skeptical eye are the ways that you'll start to find the angles.

[ballyho]

i have given this subject an enormous amount of my time
over 35 years. for now I will refer you to "exacta charting",
tri/superfecta "pyramids" and Dr. Z style place bets

[HavanaBanana]

People betting favorites die broke.

ToT