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#1
08-12-2006, 09:31 AM
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Bottom dwellers
Most of the games I offer up on this board are usually bad teams. Last place teams a lot of the time. The kinda team that the public snickers at and says NO CHANCE! But very often this is where the money is because there is a very fine line between playoff contenders and the absolute bottom of the barrel. Just ask KC and the Red Sox.
We have one of these bottom dwelling opportunities today. Tampa is a big dog out in Oakland today. +154 is a really fantasic price for a game that's really nothing more than a coinflip. Actually Oakland should be favored a bit but not much. They are home and TB sucks on the road and Oakland has a better record but if you just look at the numbers these two teams are basically the same. Tampa actually scores .2 runs per game more than Oakland, and beats them in EqA .257 to .256, and has 7 more points of OPS (.730 to .723). I would call these 2 offenses even steven. This means Oakland gets big favorite status from the pitching matchups. Nuh uh! The starters here are also remarkably equal in effectiveness. In Fossums starts the Rays are 12-9 (not bad for a last place team) and in Blantons starts the A's are 13-10. Fossum has a slightly better whip, K/9 and OPS against while Blanton has a better BB/9 and HR/9 but statistically these guys look real similar without a noticible edge going one way or the other. Plus Fossum has been real effecitve recently giving up no earned runs in his last 2 starts against the good offenses of Detroit and Boston. So what we have here is 2 equal starters, two equal offenses and a big line. Hmmmm? Okay so Oakland gets points (and TB loses points) for the venue as TB has not performed well on the road. Oakland gets points for bullpen as the A's pen has been more effective. So our coinflip on starting pitching and offense gets weighted in Oaklands favor for home field and bullpen. I'm gonna call that A's favorite at about the -112 to -120 range. +154 on TB looks like stealing to me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Of course when this bet loses I will have to lower my head in shame and hear the taunts of "yay for money!" from those who took the other side (or claim to after the fact). The reason I write these games up is because it helps me focus and makes me be sure to dot my i's and cross my t's. Also I hope it will help stimulate discussion about baseball and baseball handicapping ideas because these are things I like to talk about. I couldn't give a rats ass if anyone bets this game or not. And I hate it when I post one, people follow it and lose money. But we are all gamblers and poker players here and should understand the concepts of variance. I see edge here. Maybe you do or maybe you don't. But if anyone can come up with a reason to lay -160 on the A's I sure would like to hear it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#2
08-12-2006, 11:05 AM
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Re: Bottom dwellers
[ QUOTE ]
Tampa actually scores .2 runs per game more than Oakland [/ QUOTE ] What is your source for that? According to BP, Oakland has scored 516 runs in 115 games and TB has scored 506 in 116 games...actually in my model the run expectation for each team starts off with adjusted equivalent runs scored(AEQR)...based on this measure Oakland outscores TB by .18 runs per game I certainly won't give you any reasons to lay -165 on Oak, and if they win I won't come on here after the game telling you about all of the money that I made on the game...lol...but fwiw I didn't think there was enough "value" to take the D-Rays either...as you pointed out most of the pitching stats looked even, but one that I factor in my model is park adjusted runs against...on this metric, Fossum gives up .5 runs per game more than Blanton (5.5 vs. 5.0)...I also give a huge edge to Oakland for defense and the bullpen...for an adjustment for team defense, I added .14 expected runs to Oakland, and took away .05 expected runs from TB...Oakland has one of the best bullpens in baseball; TB has one of the worst...without going thru all of the gory details, I figured that the bullpen differential of the 2 teams is worth about 25 centavos on the money line...then after adjusting for home field and how each team does vs. righty/lefty, I actually had a slight line value for Oakland, but not enough to want to make a wager best of luck with the game though -- hopefully you won't be singing the Fossum Prison Blues afterward! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#3
08-12-2006, 12:56 PM
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Re: Bottom dwellers
[ QUOTE ]
Oakland has scored 516 runs in 115 games and TB has scored 506 in 116 games. [/ QUOTE ] I transcribed it wrong from my notes. You are correct and the difference is still insignificant. The EqA's and OPS are correct though. The only park adjustment I consider is a teams EqA. I don't trust that stuff much myself. There is a big bullpen disparity. But I can't believe it's worth 40 to 50 cents asumming starters and offenses equal with a 10-15 cent homefield edge. In my mind any time a line passes the 150 point it means some sort of recognizable mismatch is apparent in starter quality or offensively. The only recognizable mismatch here is bullpen as otherwise this matchup is very flat. And as for road stats as bad as TB has been they did win 2 of 3 in Oakland back in May so in their minds they know they can win there. Plus Blanton has a poor history vs. the Rays with a 1-3 record including an absolute drubbing last season (7 er in .1 inning). Anyway I think it's a play at this price.
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#4
08-12-2006, 01:04 PM
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Re: Bottom dwellers
Mrb-
what do you make of the fact that in their last 10, the A's are 8-2 while the rays are 3-7? just variance? I'm an A's homer and am always looking to bet on them, but didn't think there was any value in this, so there may well be value on TB (Blanton is less than stellar). I'm just curious about how much you weight recent results.
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#6
08-12-2006, 02:29 PM
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Re: Bottom dwellers
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious about how much you weight recent results. [/ QUOTE ] The only "current form" stuff I use in my model are rpg in last 10 and starter performance over last 3 starts. In the last 10 A's have scored at season average while TB has scored a full run under season average so A's get that edge. But Fossum has pitched real well in his last 3 (16 K's to only 2 walks in past 3 and no earned runs in last 2) so he gets plus points here over Blanton.
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#7
08-12-2006, 05:24 PM
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Re: Bottom dwellers
[ QUOTE ]
The surging Athletics look for their eighth win in nine games on Saturday night when they continue a three-game set against the struggling Devil Rays at McAfee Coliseum. Tampa Bay fell to 0-4 on its six-game road trip and 3-13 on the road against AL West opponents with Friday's loss. The Devil Rays have dropped 15 of their last 16 away from home. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, maybe this "current form" doesn't mean too much in your models, but it does tend to explain the line...
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