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| View Poll Results: do you table select frequently? | |||
| yes |
   
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81 | 79.41% |
| no |
  
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21 | 20.59% |
| Voters: 102. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#1
08-11-2006, 04:22 PM
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Disgusting Fold!!
OK I feel one aspect has been overlooked in the discussion so far: Stack sizes!
If the numbers in this thread are correct, the stacks were: Gold: 60 Million Wasicka: 18 Million Binger: 11 Million Here is what can happen: a) GOLD wins against both players 17.17% of the time --> Wasicka gets 2nd place, because he has more chips than Binger right? b) Wasicka wins against both players 53.82% of the time --> He gets 2nd place + has a nice stack. c) Binger wins: 29% of the time Binger will triple up. If Wasicka folds, Binger will more than double 63% of the time. --> If Wasicki makes the call, he is guaranteed 2nd place money 71% of the time + has a nice stack! If he folds he is gguaranteed 2nd place money only 37% of the time, and his stack isnt to great. Important aspect: How likely is the horror scenario of Wasicki calling, Binger trippling up and Wasicki losing the significant 14 Million sidepot to Gold, which would lead to Wasicki taking third place? Due to my calculations only 4.4% !!! Noone can argue against these kind of numbers. OK he couldnt know their cards, but still. I predict if this gets televised, and he really has 87 spades, this will be known as the worst fold in the WSOP history! 
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#2
08-11-2006, 04:29 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
Quote:
It was posted just not with exact numbers
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#3
08-11-2006, 04:57 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
Red0nkulassss. For all the ppl that say hanging around for an extra 2 million when you fold is reason enough. Well half the time you win that hand and put yourself in a posistion to win at least 20 million after endorsements n such. And for the "Oh well he could have had a higher flush draw or a set for boat outs!" Please sit in my game, I would love to play shorthanded with someone who always plays the worst case scenario game.
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#4
08-11-2006, 04:43 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
[ QUOTE ]
Noone can argue against these kind of numbers. OK he couldnt know their cards, but still. I predict if this gets televised, and he really has 87 spades, this will be known as the worst fold in the WSOP history! [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I could see that being one of the worst folds at a WSOP final table. It's not like he got bluffed off the best hand a la Sammy Farha (perfectly understandable). He knew he had the worst hand but a great draw getting a great price with a chance to win a gigantic pot and just chickened out it seems. But what I don't understand is that this guy played great for 2 weeks, and is a way better player than I am, so that leads me to conclude that it must have been fatigue clouding his judgement. Then again other posters here are saying they agree with the fold (not knowing the other cards) so it can't be that clear cut obviously. Also, why would he risk his tournament with that ballsy checkraise bluff against Cunningham? And that reckless call with KQo against Binger's all-in that cost him half his stack getting only about 1.5:1 to call? Why was he loose in those cases but he froze up here? Something doesn't add up to me, maybe he didn't really have 87s?
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#5
08-11-2006, 04:52 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
There are no reasonable arguements for folding there. You have 55% equity to win a 3-way hand. Even if the horror situation of facing AT and KsQs isn't that bad. You have 2 of 7 spades giving you the nuts, and 8 outs to a str8. The fold was the most atrocious poker play I've seen in over 24 hours.
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#6
08-11-2006, 05:21 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
[ QUOTE ]
There are no reasonable arguements for folding there. You have 55% equity to win a 3-way hand. Even if the horror situation of facing AT and KsQs isn't that bad. You have 2 of 7 spades giving you the nuts, and 8 outs to a str8. The fold was the most atrocious poker play I've seen in over 24 hours. [/ QUOTE ] Thank you CSC, I thought I was losing my mind with some posters with a high post count actually agreeing with the fold. And I totally missed the fact that he had the straight flush outs even if he was up against the feared higher flush draw for a minimum of 8 outs in a 3-way all in which is already sufficient equity to call.
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#9
08-11-2006, 05:26 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
I think it is important to note that the ten is not the ten of spades.
Therefore he could be drawing to only 8 outs (the straight and straight flush outs) if there is a pair and a higher flush draw against him.
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#10
08-11-2006, 05:33 PM
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Re: Disgusting Fold!!
[ QUOTE ]
I think it is important to note that the ten is not the ten of spades. Therefore he could be drawing to only 8 outs (the straight and straight flush outs) if there is a pair and a higher flush draw against him. [/ QUOTE ] Yes...absolute worst case scenario is if Gold has Ts9s giving Paul 7 outs...TsXs and he has 8 outs...and the much more likely "any [censored] thing else" and he has 14 or 15 outs. It's a terrible fold...there's no need to try to find a fold here, there's not one.
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