$22: Bubble AQs hand w/flush draw

[iceblink]

This is my first hand history post, so please bear with me and let me know if any info is missing, etc. Also, does anyone know of a utility I can use to extract hand histories on Pacific? (they don't email them).

$22 single-table NLH sng on Pacific. 4-handed, 100/200 blinds.

Villain was playing very tight on short stack earlier in 4-handed play (when he was 2nd shortest stack), then became very aggressive when he dropped down to shortest stack. He's recently climbed back up to 2nd shortest again.

BB (Villain) (t1708)
UTG (t1132)
Button (t2738)
SB (Hero) (t2122)

Preflop: Hero is SB with AsQs
UTG folds, Button folds, Hero raises to t477, Villain calls.

Flop: (t954) 3s 6d 8s (2 players)
Hero bets t253, Villain min-raises to t506, Hero calls.

Turn: (t1966) Jd
Hero checks, Villain minbets (t200), Hero calls.

River: (t2366) Qh
Hero checks, Villain goes all-in for t725, Hero calls.

Villain shows 6c6s for a set, and wins the pot.

I'm not sure about my play here at several points in the hand. Pre-flop, I thought the min-raise would likely win, given Villain's tightness on 2nd shortest stack earlier. When the flop came rags, I figured my smallish contin. bet (should I have bet more?) would likely do the job, and if not I have the flush draw + 2 overs.

It's tough not to call the min-raise on the flop, given the great odds I'm getting for the flush draw alone. Should I consider folding to this raise in view of the bubble? That would leave me with t1492, appx. 7 BB's and 2nd shortest stack.

Should I have represented a Jack rather than checking the turn? And again, it's tough to fold when Villain only minbets the turn, giving me great odds to crack even the current nuts.

Finally, I'm getting more than 3-1 to call on the river, and I have hit TPTK. So I just have to worry about sets and AA or KK (and technically 2 pair also, though that doesn't seem likely given how tight Villain's been playing on a short stack). I suppose I should have asked myself what hands Villain could be holding that I can actually beat. 99, TT, and maybe A8 or AJ/KJ make sense, though I'd be surprised if he'd min-raise the flop with AJ or KJ. It really looks like he's slowplaying a monster, but putting in the min-raise just in case I have a flush draw.

Can I actually consider folding on the river, leaving me with t1039? I would then be the chip loser, half a BB behind UTG, who's been playing weaktight on a short stack, waiting to make the money. Button has been the aggressor 4-handed, making quite a few 3xbb raises and calling allin re-raises with hands like 87o. And I'll be getting the button on the next hand....

Thanks in advance for any help, comments, feedback, etc.

Alan

[Pudge714]

Wow you really butchered this hand.
Push preflop.
Push flop.
Once you make that little donkbet reshove to his raise.
Turn and river are fine.

[iceblink]

You think I should push (preflop and on the flop), even though I'm on the bubble here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the conventional wisdom was to cash in these sng's first, then plays for the win after that.

If I was already in the money, then yeah, I'd consider pushing preflop, and almost certainly push on the flop. But lately I haven't been making those kinds of plays on the bubble, since I'm trying to play to cash first, then play to win once I'm in the money. Being on the bubble is what makes this hand such a predicament for me.

Alan

[AJGibson]

Your raise preflop was a little on the small side, giving your opponent 2:1 pot odds is to good for him the pass up with anysort of hand.

You only have just over 10BB left, you should be either pushing or folding, any significant raise will nearly commit you to the hand anyway. AQs is a massive hand in this situation and you have loads of FE, hence push.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
You think I should push (preflop and on the flop), even though I'm on the bubble here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the conventional wisdom was to cash in these sng's first, then plays for the win after that.

If I was already in the money, then yeah, I'd consider pushing preflop, and almost certainly push on the flop. But lately I haven't been making those kinds of plays on the bubble, since I'm trying to play to cash first, then play to win once I'm in the money. Being on the bubble is what makes this hand such a predicament for me.

Alan

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this that if you get you just raise AQs and miss the flop or check fold the turn to a shove in this hand. Then you are crippled and you gave the other shorty a ton of chips making it very difficult for you to cash.

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
You think I should push (preflop and on the flop), even though I'm on the bubble here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the conventional wisdom was to cash in these sng's first, then plays for the win after that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put yourself in the BB seat
BB (Hero) (t1708)
UTG (t1132)
Button (t2738)
SB (Villian) (t2122)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6c6s
UTG folds, Button folds, Villian raises to t2122 All-in, Hero ??

You've got to make a decision for all your chips? Would you call? It's most likely that calling will put you in for a coin flip, or you're dominated by a higher pair, so there's no way you can call. In fact there aren't many hands you can call with here, that's why the push from the SB is the best move.

[iceblink]

Judging from these first two responses, it sounds like I'm really playing too tight on the bubble.

I know I'm down to just over 10xBB here, but I've been playing more conservatively on the bubble based on my relative stack size (in this case I'm 2nd chip leader). Am I mistaken in this whole notion of "playing to cash" in sng's being correct as opposed to playing to win? Or am I just taking it too far?

Let's say I had A3o or QTo in that same spot. Would you still push? I understand the fold equity is high, given that the guy is tight, but should I risk bubbling out (or getting severely crippled) given that two other players are shorter stacked than I am, and one of them by a large margin?

Alan

[NotesNL]

[ QUOTE ]

Let's say I had A3o or QTo in that same spot. Would you still push?
Alan

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I think this is +EV push here.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
Judging from these first two responses, it sounds like I'm really playing too tight on the bubble.

I know I'm down to just over 10xBB here, but I've been playing more conservatively on the bubble based on my relative stack size (in this case I'm 2nd chip leader). Am I mistaken in this whole notion of "playing to cash" in sng's being correct as opposed to playing to win? Or am I just taking it too far?

Let's say I had A3o or QTo in that same spot. Would you still push? I understand the fold equity is high, given that the guy is tight, but should I risk bubbling out (or getting severely crippled) given that two other players are shorter stacked than I am, and one of them by a large margin?

Alan

[/ QUOTE ]

Both of those are pushes. I seriously think you are underestimating your suckout equity. Just because you get called by a better hand doesn't mean you will lose.

[iceblink]

On Pacific the 66 is definitely in just about everybody's calling range here. They're totally in love with their pocket pairs, even though they'll take awhile to agonize before making the call.

Personally, I'm not so sure I'd fold 66 to an allin here. I've only got about an 8xBB stack, so I'm under a lot of pressure to get some chips soon, so I might just take my chances on what's hopefully a race. There's a much higher chance that I'm up against 2 overs than a higher pair.

I still don't understand why the bubble situation doesn't factor in here. Let's say the chip loser (the UTG player) had only a 1.5xBB stack. Would that change things, or are we still playing to win rather than to cash?