Battle of the Blinds

[TarHeel100]

Heads up Blind Situation. I would like to get some ideas as to how others would play this situation on all streets and not just the river.

Villian: Only at the table for 15 hands so far, his VPIP is around 40-45% at this point and he has folded all 4 flop bets to him.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero.........

[Gib]

looks fine (assuming you bet the river)

[gharp]

I'd bet again and fold to a raise.

[Zeldark]

I don't think 15 hands is a very accurate sample. Unless your 40-45% is from instinct, which may also be flawed with such a sample, I wouldn't rely on it too much. Having said that, assuming it is a fairly high 40-45%, that percantage will theoretically be much higher from the Big Blind. I have my doubts I'd even complete with this in the small blind, but I don't think this hand is strong enough to tango without a more solid read of his true chances of defending the blind.

You noticed he folded all flop bets toward him that you observed, which isn't many. Knowing that I wouldn't be incredibly thrilled going into the turn. I'd probably c/f in the small pot on moderately coordinated board. And the river makes it more coordinated still. I'd again consider the C/F. Straight/2 Pair possibilities galore.

[TarHeel100]

Well, I'm a 60% favorite against a random hand w/ A8o, raising to hopefully take the blind right there, but if not I've got the equity to raise most of the time.

The VPIP doesn't really come into my preflop decision, it's more of just some info. on the opponent. I make this same preflop play against nearly any opponent.

[HollywoodDB]

I'd bet the river. I think most people will raise the flop if they have a ten.

[Aaron W.]

Bet-call or check-call. I'm not folding.

I think I'd take check-call because I like to see villains bluff at me plus I wouldn't mind seeing what he had when he called the flop and turn bets. I like information gathering when it's a player directly next to me (especially the one against whom I'm OOP).

[CrMenace]

*grunch*

b/f. Villain looks like he's pretty passive. He may be calling down overs in hopes they connect, or may be the type to call down any pair. I'm pretty happy with second pair, ace kicker in this situation.

[feroder_zb]

Someone, once advised me that in HU play (and extrapolating to FR when it's folded to the blinds) to limp/check aces with a low kicker(A8-A2) and raise aces with a high kicker(AK-A9). The logic behind this is that AK-AT hits TP often enough or stays best UI enough that raising PF is +EV because it exploits a large equity edge. With the low aces, your chances of hitting TP or remaining best are drastically reduced so raising PF would be exploiting a rather small equity edge. By limping/checking a ace with a low kicker you can exploit more fully a large equity edge post flop because of the surprise factor; that is, when you do spike an ace, an opponent used to blind steal situations will be inclined to disbelieve you have an ace b/c most aggressive opponents would have raised PF with an ace. Thus you can extract much more from an opponent who hits bottom/mid pair or has UI cards and will call down b/c s/he believe s/he has the best hand or is drawing to many more outs than is the case. This idea is probably much stronger in NL play where you can easily stack someone who thinks you're bluffing to steal on an A high flop, however I think it has some merit in limit as well.

The one qualifier of this logic is that the villain you're up against must know that s/he is in a "blind-steal" situation and must believe that most of his/her opponents in the situation would have raised with any ace. However by the title of your post you think you're opponent knows it's a blind steal situation, else you probably woulnd't have taken the line you did, so this is a non-issue. I'm curious to get feedback on this logic from veterans and newbies alike as I've never really tested it against the minds of other thinking poker players. Thanks.

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet again and fold to a raise.


[/ QUOTE ]