$16: Resteal or don't get fancy?

[Austiger]

[ QUOTE ]
turbomuck. he is a bad player trying to trap you with a big hand. I need JJ+ or AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding TT or AQ here would be really bad.

[sofere]

I don't think he even has to have that huge a hand to make this a fold. I'm treating this bet as an all-in. I don't have SNGPT available right now, but I would guess that restealing (calling the all-in) would be -EV even if villain was raising with as much as 25%.

[el_dusto]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who thinks this guy has been playing just long enough to know that 3xBB is a standard raise but not long enough to know he should push with <10BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.

I think TT and AQ are on the bottom edge of a good repush range for this hand. I'm surprised nobody had anything to say about BB still being left to act.

[Austiger]

Oh I thought Hero was BB. Calibrate everything I've said to this point to reflect that.

[zabt]

If villain had pushed 15% (33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+) -- which, of course, is way less than he should be pushing -- this would be a breakeven call, and it gets +EV pretty quickly after that (+0.4% at 18%, for instance).

Villain's actions aren't that much different from a typical 2+2er. The min-raise with 99 is a bit strange, but he checked it down when he didn't hit a set. And, not playing hands until pushbot time is, IMO, more an indication that he knows what he's doing than he doesn't. Most donks are of the active variety. The 3xBB bet is odd, but not really from a practical standpoint -- if he knows he's committed to the pot, it doesn't matter whether he raises and calls or just pushes. This way he's made you think, and perhaps created more FE than he would otherwise have had.

I push.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
If villain had pushed 15% (33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+) -- which, of course, is way less than he should be pushing -- this would be a breakeven call, and it gets +EV pretty quickly after that (+0.4% at 18%, for instance).

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn. I guess I suck at calling.

[el_dusto]

Sharkscope has this guy at breakeven over about 400 games, and I had never seen him before (he had a memorable name, and he doesn't multitable). I frankly don't think he's experienced enough to play the he'll-fold-more-often-if-i-don't-push metagame, and I suspect his range is closer to 10% than 15.

I like your thinking, zabt, and I'll hopefully keep that line (and call) in mind when I'm playing against regulars, but in this case, I still think this was your garden-variety bad play. It's statistically more likely than sneaky pwning... I hope ^_^

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised nobody had anything to say about BB still being left to act.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would open push this hand into the BB, so BB being left to act is not an issue.