Live $50 tourney, line check

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I definitely should have folded here, but I put him on two overs for some reason and called w/ my gutshot.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain Checks
Hero???

Read we have is that he's got 2 overs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm stumped...

Maybe I bet 3k and hope he goes away. Maybe I take the free card. Maybe he'd be the one getting a free card...

Tough one.

[betgo]

Check behind! If you are behind, you don't want to bet. If you are ahead, he has outs, but you have outs to a straight, two pair, or trips.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
Check behind! If you are behind, you don't want to bet. If you are ahead, he has outs, but you have outs to a straight, two pair, or trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are really, really confident in a read that Villain has 2 overs, then we are also really confident that we're ahead. How could betting be bad if we are really confident in the read? I mean, if the river improves us in any fashion, and our read was right, then we aren't getting more chips out of Villain since he'll have ace high at best. We have to bet the turn to allow him to make a mistake if he wants to chase the river on a 6-outer, since we will not get any more chips from Villain into this pot unless he improves (to a hand that beats ours) on the river.

[NoahSD]

If you're 100% sure that he has overs, it's just a math problem involving how often he calls a turn bet (never?), how often he pushes over your turn bet, and how often he bluffs the river and for how much.

Against most opponents, checking behind and calling a river bet is probably best.

[AceLuby]

Let's say I'm I put him on this:

90% overs
5% overpair
5% set

EDIT: Also will rarely come OTT w/ air, will call if he has some piece or an overpair.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say I'm I put him on this:

90% overs
5% overpair
5% set

[/ QUOTE ]

you need % chance to bluff the river with overs too.. that's the most important number, unless he'll c/r AI a lot on the flop with overs.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say I'm I put him on this:

90% overs
5% overpair
5% set

[/ QUOTE ]

When someone leads into the raiser on a low flop, I think there is a good chance he has a piece of it. I think a pair with the board, an underpair, and a straight draw are also real possibilities. I wouldn't be 90% sure of overcards.

I guess if you are completely sure villain has overcards, betting and pushing the river are OK, but I wouldn't play third pair that strongly.

[AceLuby]

Edited my post

[ZootMurph]

For me, this is a fold or raise situation. On ragged flops, I always see a blind take a stab at the pot. I'd really need more of a read to decide what to do. If I put him on overcards, I'd raise to 4k on the flop. If he likes to defend his blind consistently, I'd guess he may have hit that flop and be happy to let it go. Without more information on his blind play and your image, it's hard to say what to do. I think the worst play, in any case, is a call.

As for the turn... the only reason to make the call there is NOT for the inside straight draw or hoping you hit one of your cards, but to take the pot if he shows weakness on the turn. As he checks it to you, I'd bet around 3200. He tried to take the pot, and when you called he felt you had something. He checks. If you check, he'll bet the river and what will you do if you don't have trips or straight? You can't call. This is your only chance to win this pot. If you are ahead, he still has outs and you want him out. If you are behind, you want him to fold and he isn't too far ahead as he weakly checked to you. Bet the turn, whatever the card is, when he checks should have been your plan when you decided to make the call on the flop.

[AceLuby]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the turn... the only reason to make the call there is NOT for the inside straight draw or hoping you hit one of your cards, but to take the pot if he shows weakness on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was thinking. And now that I'm thinking about it I think the stacks were deeper. More like 15k and 11-12k.