WSOP ME Bubble hand

[Frenchie]

I had the following hand when we were down to 920, bubble was 873.

I starting the with 130K in BB, blinds were 1K,2K, 300, I think.

Cut off (with 70K) raised to 6K, everyone folded to me and decided to defend with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Flop came J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I checked, vilain bet 10K

What option does anyone think that has the most EV ?

Check Raising to try to take it down right then or

Check Calling, hoping to get a flush card on turn and possibly get a free river card if vilain does not have a J.

Frenchie

[BadgerPro]

This should probably be in the regular MTT forum.

Also, what are your reads on villian?

[striderz]

I haven't posted much yet so I welcome feedback.

Raising something in the 20K-30K (total) range is going to make the pot roughly the size of your opponents stack, at which point I imagine he will either fold or push. If he pushes you're in a tough spot getting 2:1 on you're money, but I would think this is a fold since your still in good shape with ~100K. I think this line depends a lot on your image. If you've got a tight image then you're in good shape I think.


Am I wrong in thinking that calling here is too weak as the board is scary. Even if you're holding a jack (or choosing to represent it here), I would think a CR is the most likely choice. 2.5:1 odds are decent for flush chasing (hes got enough back for implied odds to hold), but I really think the board is too scary for a J to call here so I think he might be able to put you on the flush draw.

EDIT: my math was off, if he pushes after the CR you're getting ~5:2 odds to call. I'm tired and am looking forward to reading some elses thoughts on this hand ..

cheers
striderz

[betgo]

I would checkraise since you have villain covered on the bubble.

[BadgerPro]

I was asking for reads on villian since if he's opening a lot of pots when folded to 75s is a hand I would look to repop him preflop, especially on the button.

[TheNewf]

I'd consider restealing preflop but we need a read on the villian. Given that you called I'd checkraise whatever amount you think he'll find most scary/believable. Seems like the perfect time to put him to a decsion for all his chips near the bubble.

[MikeyEdge]

I think I would lay this hand down.

If you are going to check raise, you'll need to put in at least 25k. If he has anything he's pushing. I'd hate to be in for 70k on a 7 high flush draw.

I would put him on something like 99, so you could get him to fold a hand like that, but I think you could pick a better spot at this point in the tournament IMO.

[Alexey]

I would quietly call here. If he has a jack that saves you your money if you miss your flush on turn, while giving you a chance to bust him. If he has no jack, he will check the turn in most cases and you decide either you apply pressure on him representing a jack or draw to your flush on the river. I would take a free card here. Near the bubble I dont want to risk significant amount of my stack, while looking for (relatively) cheap situations to double up or bust somebody.

[adanthar]

Easiest CR ever, and if you're not checkraising now it's because you're calling and then checkraising any turn.