Two Red Zone Hands

[HatesLosing]

Ok, short recap: Your M is just barely over 2 (under 2.5) and you're in the SB and it's a table and stage of the tourney where almost always someone raises pf and takes it down or ends up heads up, but now for some reason there are three limpers when action is on you with Js3s (an EP, MP, and LP limper in front of you). You have a tight image and haven't played a hand with any aggression in a looong time (seriously card dead) and haven't been moving in, even though you've been looking for spots to do so with such a small stack. What's your play?

I should mention that the blinds/antes in the tourney go up every 30 minutes in this online tourney and were going to go up in perhaps 17 minutes. I should also mention that this MTT is EXTREMELY top heavy in its payout. Only about 20 players remain (and you're in about 20th) and you're in the money already, but unless you finish deep into the final table, it really hasn't been worthwhile in terms of payout. While people are bound to make mistakes and slowly get knocked out in this MTT, very few people are so shortstacked as you that they should be feeling any compelling amount of pressure right now, so it's not like your Q is in good shape either.

Now hand #2: Same MTT and same part of the tourney, but now your M is 4 and someone UTG limps and you have 33. This time you had a very tight image up until recently moving all-in twice and taking down the blinds+antes both times to get your stack up to M=4 (so people are thinking there is a chance you finally are changing gears or finally catching cards). What's your play here? (UTG is not a maniac, not a calling station... he's a halfway decent player and that's it--nothing special, nothing terrible, but has played a little on the tight and cautious side).

EDIT: Hand #2 you are folded to in MP after the UTG limper.

[HatesLosing]

I think I forgot to mention that in hand #2 after the UTG limper, you are folded to in MP.

[Supwithbates]

Hand #1 I fold, J3 has gotta be a -ev push with no fold equity in what figures to be a 5way pot most of the time (unless you get lucky and BB wakes up with a hand like TT and pushes to isolate). How big are the antes? Bigger antes=need to be more aggressive. If antes are small, I think I can find a fold here, as much as I hate it.

Hand #2, I push unless I have a good read on UTG limper as on a pocket pair (which is often the case for an UTG limper). But minus any such observed behavior, I push... that might just be part of my lowstakes instinct talking, where half the time UTG limpers are still turning up QJos

[HatesLosing]

[ QUOTE ]
How big are the antes?

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To be more specific, let's say they are 8k/16k blinds with 800 chip antes, and you have maybe 67k in chips. I might add that people have routinely been folding preflop to raises of 3 x BB and whether the table understands the gap concept or not, they sure seem to understand it.

[Supwithbates]

then I say fold #1 push #2
You said limpers seemed uncommon here (usually flops open for a raise), any thoughts on whether limpers could make laydowns preflop?

Basically, in a low M low Q situation, you're looking to double up, not steal. Which means that pushing hands like J3 into a multiway pot is worse, and pushing hands into likely headsup coinflip situations (where calls are likely) is better. When my M drops below 5, I try to double up at the first hand I've read to be a coinflip.

I'm a lowstakes donk though, take all I say with a grain of salt

[HatesLosing]

[ QUOTE ]
then I say fold #1 push #2
You said limpers seemed uncommon here (usually flops open for a raise), any thoughts on whether limpers could make laydowns preflop?

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Yes, they can. My read in this situation was as follows:

1. EP limps - Maybe he is trying to sneak in with a small pocket pair or a hand that isn't too strong, maybe he has a monster and is looking to limp re-raise. He can fold preflop in the first scenario, obviously he can't fold in the latter.

2. MP limps - He can't have a very strong hand or he would have raised. This guy can definately fold preflop without a problem.

3. LP limps - He doesn't have a very strong hand either or he would have raised. While he is certainly capable of folding preflop too, he's also the type that would feel pressure to make a call, even with a not-so-good hand, if a short stack moves in and it's folded to him (i.e., he will play "the sheriff" and call in situations where he believes he is slightly -EV but not significantly -EV).

The read on #3 was probably the worst of the 3 reads, and these were reads only (I'm pretty good at making reads, but we're all wrong sometimes).

[HatesLosing]

Anyone else have an opinion? I value everyone's opinion (including yours Supwithbates), but it is nicer to have more than just 1 opinion (especially from a self-proclaimed "low-stakes donk". heh)

[Vraket]

hand 1 fold

hand 2 push.

The utg limper might actually be good for you if he limps a filthy hand, since his limping might scare away a lot of hands that would like to call you, like 77.

[HatesLosing]

Ok, so now I might ask: Why does everyone want to fold hand 1? Your M is near 2 and you're desperate as can be. You are basically at the point where you can't sit back and wait for a +EV spot because by the time a +EV spot occurs, you will often have no chips left (unless you just get very lucky and catch cards very soon).

Clealy noone here is strong except possibly EP if he was going for a limp re-raise, and your image is as good as it can be at this point. BB will fold since EP could be limp re-raising, and MP will fold. If EP isn't limp re-raising, he may fold with two players left to act behind him, and now you're heads up against LP (who doesn't have a strong hand) with amazing pot odds. If EP calls with a decent but not too strong hand, MP will still fold and then LP may or may not fold--it's hard to say.

If EP was limp re-raising you're in trouble, and if BB wakes up with a monster you're in trouble. But you're already in trouble--your M is around 2!

[UVaHoo]

What are the other stacks in hand 1? I think you're being way too optimistic if you think more than 1 person is folding, unless it's for a sizeable % of their stack. You have no fold equity, and no hand to showdown. I'd fold this and look for a better spot to push before the blinds come around to you again.