WSOP Main Event Day 5 thread

[CrazyEyez]

You wanna hug it out, bitch?


why isn't that censored?

[raconteur]

Your counters are valid, aside from the final one. If I make it 300k he calls with any two (again, previous hands show this to be no exaggeration) and I'm in trouble with a worthless hand, a third of my chips in the pot, and a situation where I now have to push any flop and he's getting slightly above 2-1 to call with any piece of it. If I push, he folds his steals and based on previous hands, perhaps even hands like two fours and A-10. Maybe if I'd found 10-9 suited or something I'd have taken this line, but for the hand I found myself with, all my equity lies in finishing the hand preflop.

Regards,
Richard

[betgo]

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Just spoke w/ a couple of Gryko's buddy's. CP got the hand exactly correct. They said that Gold had been raising every single hand and this was the last hand before the break. He was going to push any two cards, looked down and saw J3o, and the rest is history. His buddies liked the logic, I still think that if he wanted to make a play at this pot, there were several better ways to go about it than this.

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If the guy was raising every pot, the resteal is not terrible. Sometimes plays are not as bad as they look. Still J3o is an awful restealing hand.

[Georgia Avenue]

Richard:

How do you rate Gold's ability...are these maniac plays you're describing backed up by solid post flop skills or just total craziness?

FWIW: I think yr a badass. J3 = teh nutz.
--GA

[betgo]

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Counterpoint: You didn't have to raise it allin. You could've very easily made it 300k and folded to a push. It would accomplish the same thing without nearly as much risk.

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What does this accomplish? By that time, he is ahead of pot odds with J3o versus AKo.

If this play is cEV-, it is very slightly so.

Obviously, this is much better with 75s, 44, KTo, A4s, or any other legitimate restealing hand.

[HP]

Jeff Lisandro needs to win it so us Aussies can brag about how 'we' won the last two ME's

[pineapple888]

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First, who cares about 80k?


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You should. And if you don't, would you care about $180K? $380K? The point is that, when the payouts are escalating fast and people are busting out like donkeys, it's more +EV than usual to be patient.

And if you are only in it to "win or bust", it STILL pays to be patient in this situation, with a comfortable stack vs. a LAG who can bust you.

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Second, to the person who said that there is no dead money in the pot, his 100 + 36 in blinds + 36 in antes represents 20pc of my stack.


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Which still will not change your tournament situation all that much.

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Third, he'd been open raising LITERALLY every pot, and the last hand before the break was a particularly obvious target.


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Which means you, personally, HAVE to look him up with a trash hand?

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Fourth, I was short stacked, by my definition


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Which I'm sure is better than Harrington's, for example. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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and was only a 40/60 or so dog when I got called,


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You were 32.5%

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which I wouldnt expect to be more than around one in six times.


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I'm not sure where the one in six comes from, but let's go with it.

You are 27.9% against the top 16% of hands, if that's what you think he is calling with.

Against the top 75% of hands, you are still not quite 40%.

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I thought that members of this forum were much less likely to indulge in this than others.


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From what I've seen the members of this forum are interested in finding the best plays in a given situation.

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I played five days, lost a 2m pot on day four when we got all in on the turn and my opponent was a 2-1 dog, still managed to finish with 1m, was card dead on day five and still ran what was at one time less than 300k up to 1.7m on air, then lost a 1.8m chip pot coinflip and a 1.8m chip pot 3/2 shot to go out. Yeah, I must be a real donkey. "J3o looool".


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Congratulations on an excellent WSOP ME performance.

You may be a top-notch player for all I know. But even top-notch players sometimes make mistakes.

Please reconsider whether your bustout hand was optimal play.

[betgo]

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You are 27.9% against the top 16% of hands, if that's what you think he is calling with.

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Assuming Gold is raising 80% of his hands and calls with top 16% hands, then he folds 4/5th of the time to the resteal.

If he folds, you pick up 172K. If he calls, the expected loss is 920 - 1920 *. 28 = 385K. 172 *.8 - 385 * .2 = +60K chips on the average. Your chance of busting out is 14%.

So according to your own estimated calling ranges, the play is significantly cEV+.

[PITTM]

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I have never seen or heard of Eric Molina before. From what I've read in the CP blog he uses a lot of trash talk and got penalized for the F-Bomb right after throwing a chip at Jamie Gold's chest. Can anyone here desribe him? Is he Latino? Filipino? Is he normally a trash talker to everyone or is it just to Gold?

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He's got an interview at CP - he looks like a typical internet punk player.

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At least now I have someone else to root against.

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Does that bedhead pass for stylish these days or something?

eastbay

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ass he gets>>>>>>>>>ass you get.

i can make that assumption immediately.

rj

[pineapple888]

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You are 27.9% against the top 16% of hands, if that's what you think he is calling with.

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Assuming Gold is raising 80% of his hands and calls with top 16% hands, then he folds 4/5th of the time to the resteal.

If he folds, you pick up 172K. If he calls, the expected loss is 920 - 1920 *. 28 = 385K. 172 *.8 - 385 * .2 = +60K chips on the average. Your chance of busting out is 14%.

So according to your own estimated calling ranges, the play is significantly cEV+.

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I wasn't at the table but we know he was raising 100% already and I suspect he would call with top 23% or so (possibly much more if he was truly nuts). The 16% was my guess at what OP was saying by his one-sixth estimate which I didn't understand.

We've already discussed the $ev/cEV differential, and there is always the vig you'd want for a presumed skill edge if Hero is, in fact, a top-notch player.