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#21
08-06-2006, 03:55 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
Was it that 6 run 3 HR 3 walk 5 inning performance in his previous start to yesterday that convinced you he had turned the corner? [/ QUOTE ] do I detect a note of sarcasm???...lol 
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#22
08-06-2006, 04:14 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] as stated in my other post, this is the first time I've put money on a Prior start. But thanks for verifying. [/ QUOTE ] Was it that 6 run 3 HR 3 walk 5 inning performance in his previous start to yesterday that convinced you he had turned the corner? [/ QUOTE ] nope, a combination of all his starts, HIS PROGRESS and the team he was playing against. Along with several other factors. Gotta love the money. [/ QUOTE ] His lack of progress is exactly what this thread is about!
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#23
08-06-2006, 05:52 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] as stated in my other post, this is the first time I've put money on a Prior start. But thanks for verifying. [/ QUOTE ] Was it that 6 run 3 HR 3 walk 5 inning performance in his previous start to yesterday that convinced you he had turned the corner? [/ QUOTE ] In fairness, he no hit the mets for 5 2/3 the start before that.
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#24
08-06-2006, 07:14 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
In fairness, he no hit the mets for 5 2/3 the start before that. [/ QUOTE ] I mentioned that in the original post. He also walked FIVE in that game. My point being nothing in his performance so far this year including yesterdays game indicates he is anything but a broken down hack right now. Will he turn it around? Probably, he has way too much talent unless the constant injuries have ruined him. But until he performs (gets the control to avoid the walks and bombs) you have to assume he will get hammered. They won yesterday but he was still awful and his walks and hit batters and homerun rates still haven't dropped as his performance yesterday was right on par with his struggles all year so far. He was lucky to get out giving up as little as he did yesterday. Tracy I believe made a poor choice not pinch hitting for Duke with the bases loaded. But he knows his team and players better than I do and Duke is an okay hitter and was 2 for 2 in the game. Like I said when he stops the high walk, HR and pitch counts I'll shift gears accordingly. He hasn't yet despite a shaky win over the worst team in the league.
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#25
08-06-2006, 07:27 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
according to 'joe morgan logic', Prior has been slumping lately, so he's DUE to pitch better sooner or later.
It's all about the percentages!!
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#26
08-06-2006, 07:50 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] as stated in my other post, this is the first time I've put money on a Prior start. But thanks for verifying. [/ QUOTE ] Was it that 6 run 3 HR 3 walk 5 inning performance in his previous start to yesterday that convinced you he had turned the corner? [/ QUOTE ] nope, a combination of all his starts, HIS PROGRESS and the team he was playing against. Along with several other factors. Gotta love the money. [/ QUOTE ] His lack of progress is exactly what this thread is incorrectly about! [/ QUOTE ] FYP
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#27
08-06-2006, 07:59 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In fairness, he no hit the mets for 5 2/3 the start before that. [/ QUOTE ] I mentioned that in the original post. He also walked FIVE in that game. My point being nothing in his performance so far this year including yesterdays game indicates he is anything but a broken down hack right now. Will he turn it around? Probably, he has way too much talent unless the constant injuries have ruined him. But until he performs (gets the control to avoid the walks and bombs) you have to assume he will get hammered. They won yesterday but he was still awful and his walks and hit batters and homerun rates still haven't dropped as his performance yesterday was right on par with his struggles all year so far. He was lucky to get out giving up as little as he did yesterday. Tracy I believe made a poor choice not pinch hitting for Duke with the bases loaded. But he knows his team and players better than I do and Duke is an okay hitter and was 2 for 2 in the game. Like I said when he stops the high walk, HR and pitch counts I'll shift gears accordingly. He hasn't yet despite a shaky win over the worst team in the league. [/ QUOTE ] A no hitter is meaningless through 5 if you walk a batter each inning, since it's so dangerous to have someone on first in every inning...but given all the other gross exaggerations and incorrect generalitites...I'm guessing it's not worth the effort to continue to point them out. Regardless...this thread has degenerated into one guy upset that his "sage advice" turned out to lose himself, and others money...and his complete inability to be anything other than 100% right. Betting baseball is a lot more than some guys personal grudge against Prior, and if you read through this thread, you will see that's all this is. It was pretty clear in the original post that lots of important information was playing no part in this. I'd advise everyone to pay close attention to who they listen to before putting money on anything. Enjoy it guys...I know I did. Woohoo money.
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#28
08-06-2006, 08:12 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
You're an idiot. I posted a thread about Pedro and D. Willis giving up a ton of runs and I put a chunk on it and lost. Does that mean its a [censored] bet? No. That bet was money. I coulda locked in a scalp even with the 20c vig. The line moved like 27c on my premonition. Same with this. Prior still sucks a fatty.
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#29
08-06-2006, 08:30 PM
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Re: Prior performance no guarantee of future results
[ QUOTE ]
this thread has degenerated into one guy upset that his "sage advice" turned out to lose himself, and others money...and his complete inability to be anything other than 100% right. [/ QUOTE ] Really? I posted my opinion and analysis on the game BEFORE it started. I stand by my analysis and firmly believe it was correct. The fact that it didn't win is neither here nor there. I lose a lot of baseball bets and it happens almost every day. Variance is inescapable and +ev bets can (and do) still lose. Fortunately for me the percentages work out and I end up winning more than I lose. You have argued this ever since AFTER the game. Where were you beforehand? Even after the fact and you claim you won on the other side you haven't come up with any reasonable fact, stat or argument to counter my original analysis. In fact Priors box score line was terrible yesterday despite his shaky win. What was your procedure and analysis for believing the Cubs were a good bet at -120? I told you mine why I thought they weren't.
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