Too Aggressive on Turn?

ncboiler · #1 08-05-2006, 07:34 PM

More 5/10 fun.

Villian is 28/8/.88 Is this to passive to 3 bet the turn?

5.00/10.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (3.00 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls.

River: (9.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Final Pot: 11.00 BB

BenA · #2 08-05-2006, 07:47 PM

Lemme guess, he turned over 89h? Seems like, on a paired 3 flush board, holding the 7th nut flush and against a guy with a .88 AF, I might just call the raise.

Darrone · #3 08-05-2006, 08:09 PM

he is .88, but i could definately him playing a jack this way, and i would probably still 3 bet it.

SNOWBALL · #4 08-05-2006, 09:26 PM

cliffs notes: just call turn raise. If another heart comes off, check/fold. If the board double-pairs on the river, also checkfold. Otherwise check/call river.

There are 8 hearts left. If he's dealt one of them, then there are 7 left. It doesn't matter what order they are dealt so there are (7*8)/2 = 28 combos of flushes he can have. He's not limping all of them though. We have to discount some.

Hands
AKs, AQs, ATs (3 combos)
He probably would have raised these, but maybe not all of them. Let's discount 2.

T4s, T5s, Q4s, Q5s, 94s, 95s (6 combos)

Lets just discount 4, instead of 6. He might play some of these, but it's not way too likely

that leaves us with 22 flush combos. We're stone dead versus all of them. The only flush we would beat is 45, but that makes a straight flush on this board.

Lets say he playes KJ, QJ, JT, J9, and J8. That gives him 38 combos of jacks. We beat all those hands, however we don't beat them by much. There are 5 combos of trips that have a redraw to a high flush in them.
Also, every one of those hands has 10 outs to a full house against us. So, if we're ahead, our equity is somewhere between 70-80 percent. Not so fantastic, especially considering the times that a king comes on the end and we lose extra bets to KJ, or a t comes on the end and we lose more bets to JT.

When you raise you also reopen the betting for better hands to reraise you (they often will.)

edit: I should also add that the hands we beat would probably have raised the flop

Haupt_234 · #5 08-05-2006, 11:55 PM

He would definitely play a jack this way. NH.

Haupt_234

ncboiler · #6 08-06-2006, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He would definitely play a jack this way. NH.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

Haupt I've noticed you're play a lot at FT. So it's safe to go back top Party now!!

SNOWBALL · #7 08-06-2006, 02:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He would definitely play a jack this way. NH.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

Step 1: Realize you are laying 2:1 by 3 betting
Step 2: Read my other post in this thread

edit: also, "definitely" if not a word I would use to describe a passive player NOT raising w/ trips on the flop and then raising when a flush card comes on the turn.

ncboiler · #8 08-06-2006, 02:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He would definitely play a jack this way. NH.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

Step 1: Realize you are laying 2:1 by 3 betting
Step 2: Read my other post in this thread

edit: also, "definitely" if not a word I would use to describe a passive player NOT raising w/ trips on the flop and then raising when a flush card comes on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would have made your original post easier to read and would have made the same point. I don't do the "combo" thing to well. Don't get me wrong I can do math..I'm an Engineer [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but there is not enought time to do the "combo" gazentas

swollyourroll · #9 08-06-2006, 10:07 AM

28 8 .88 for Villan. Probably limped with a J10 and raised to see where he stood on turn, only called meaning you aren't beat... easy hand to read.

ncboiler · #10 08-06-2006, 10:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
28 8 .88 for Villan. Probably limped with a J10 and raised to see where he stood on turn, only called meaning you aren't beat... easy hand to read.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he want to see where he is at why not do it on the flop where it is cheaper.