is this an easy fold or an easy call?

[RoundersRocks!]

I flopped a strong but vulnerable hand in position. When the action got to me a call seemed like I was trapping myself but a fold seemed like I was playing it too weak-tight. My read on villain is that he is extremely average to the party .50/1.00 tables. Not particularly tricky but not particularly smart either. If you think I should call, what is the plan for future streets?


.50/1.00 PL Omaha
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Button: Hero ( $61.15 )
EP:
Seat 1:
Seat 3:
Seat 5:
Seat 2:
Villian: ( $113.10 )
Seat 10: ( $115.45 )
Seat 9: ( $99 )

Dealt to Hero [ J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]

EP calls [$1].
EP2 calls [$1].
MP calls [$1].
MP2 calls [$1].
Cutoff calls [$1].
Button calls [$1].
SB calls [$0.50].
BB_ checks.

** Dealing Flop ** [ A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
>You have options at Monster #1283314 (No DP) Table!.
EP checks.
EP2_ checks.
EP3 checks.
Villian bets [$4].
MP folds.
Cutoff folds.
Cutoff folds
Hero?

[Ribbo]

Yes fold. None of your draws are to the nuts and any number of opponents could collectively have you drawing to 1 out.

[joewatch]

I like raising here to better define Villain's hand. Either he calls, indicating the nut flush draw, or he 3-bets, indicating a made str8. If he reraises, I get all my money in to push out any other draws.

Although we have the non-nut problem Ribbo mentioned, you may be up to a 65% favorite over a str8 with no redraws.

[BluffTHIS!]

If instead of his actual hand hero held something like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving top set plus the nut flush draw, and villain flipped over 2 of his cards showing the made straight, it would be correct to raise and go to the felt against even just that one player.

So the key in the actual situation is one of knowing villain and whether he would bet the made straight and be willing to go to the mat without a freeroll draw of some kind, which most likely would include a better flush draw. If the answer is yes then I might raise, but if no, meaning he has both the straight and a flush draw/higher set, then I would just fold.

[Ribbo]

Put another way, you either have a very slight advantage against your opponent, or you're screwed over big time.
So man, which is it?

[BluffTHIS!]

That's why I said "if" in a couple sentences, and the answer can only be supplied via a read by OP on villain. And with no reads, then default to the tighter strategy.

[durrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Put another way, you either have a very slight advantage against your opponent, or you're screwed over big time.
So man, which is it?

[/ QUOTE ]


you can only be screwed bigtime if he has AA w/ a better flushdraw...

[RoundersRocks!]

That all makes sense. I probably should have pushed against this guy.

thanks

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
If instead of his actual hand hero held something like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], giving top set plus the nut flush draw, and villain flipped over 2 of his cards showing the made straight, it would be correct to raise and go to the felt against even just that one player.

So the key in the actual situation is one of knowing villain and whether he would bet the made straight and be willing to go to the mat without a freeroll draw of some kind, which most likely would include a better flush draw. If the answer is yes then I might raise, but if no, meaning he has both the straight and a flush draw/higher set, then I would just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the PLO$100 level, which is, as you know, what I play, basically nobody is tight enough to fold a made nut str8. So then the question becomes, what percentage of the time will villain have a redraw here? And will it be +EV to push?

Silent A?

[youdidwhat]

I often fold the nut straight in these scenarios - and there are quite a few very tight players at the 0.5/1 level these days. I suspect some of them would too.