Statistical Bad Beat - Math included!

[michw]

So I've read a few posts lately where people cry and complain about never getting dealt big hands. You know what? I don't either so STFU you crybaby!!! And here's a little math to show you how bad I got it, and how you too can calculate whether you're truly in a big hand dryspell. 'Numeri' in probability helped me with this set up so props to him.

First realize that calculating the probability of getting dealt specific hands can be treated as a binomial distribution problem. You either do (success), or you don't (failure). Then realize the binomial distribution approximates the normal distribution when the sample size is large. (Don't ask me what this means). Now do the math.

n = sample size (# of hands dealt)
p = prob. of success = 1/221 (pocket aces)
m = mean = n*p
st dev. = SQRT(np(1-p))

Plug these numbers into the excel function NORMDIST
= NORMDIST(actual #, mean, stdev, TRUE)
This function returns the cumulative probability.

Me, I've gotten pocket A's 356 times in 85,592 hands. You know the cumulative probability of getting aces 356 times or less in 85,592 hands? No? Well I'll tell you.

mean = (85592/221) = 387
stdev = sqrt(mean(1-(1/221))) = 19.6
=NORMDIST(356, 387, 19.6, TRUE) = 0.0569

This will happen 5.6% of the time!!! That's one brutal two outer! I've gotten pocket K's 356 times also. [censored] me!

I've gotten pocket Q's 403 times.
= NORMDIST(403, 387, 19.6, TRUE) = 0.788

This will happen 78.8% of the time. I don't know even [censored] know how to play pocket Q's so of course there's no statistical anomoly here!

You get the picture. Throw your own numbers up (It's not that hard), and let us know how bad you got it. I'm sure no one will, but whatever, I'm used to my posts averaging 1.8 replies.

[Equidae]

[ QUOTE ]
So I've read a few posts lately where people cry and complain about never getting dealt big hands. You know what? I don't either so STFU you crybaby!!! And here's a little math to show you how bad I got it, and how you too can calculate whether you're truly in a big hand dryspell. 'Numeri' in probability helped me with this set up so props to him.

First realize that calculating the probability of getting dealt specific hands can be treated as a binomial distribution problem. You either do (success), or you don't (failure). Then realize the binomial distribution approximates the normal distribution when the sample size is large. (Don't ask me what this means). Now do the math.

n = sample size (# of hands dealt)
p = prob. of success = 1/221 (pocket aces)
m = mean = n*p
st dev. = SQRT(np(1-p))

Plug these numbers into the excel function NORMDIST
= NORMDIST(actual #, mean, stdev, TRUE)
This function returns the cumulative probability.

Me, I've gotten pocket A's 356 times in 85,592 hands. You know the cumulative probability of getting aces 356 times or less in 85,592 hands? No? Well I'll tell you.

mean = (85592/221) = 387
stdev = sqrt(mean(1-(1/221))) = 19.6
=NORMDIST(356, 387, 19.6, TRUE) = 0.0569

This will happen 5.6% of the time!!! That's one brutal two outer! I've gotten pocket K's 356 times also. [censored] me!

I've gotten pocket Q's 403 times.
= NORMDIST(403, 387, 19.6, TRUE) = 0.788

This will happen 78.8% of the time. I don't know even [censored] know how to play pocket Q's so of course there's no statistical anomoly here!

You get the picture. Throw your own numbers up (It's not that hard), and let us know how bad you got it. I'm sure no one will, but whatever, I'm used to my posts averaging 1.8 replies.

[/ QUOTE ]

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[T-God]

7x=9y+(2x+3y+4z)(jewsmash-33z) is basically my QQ distribution (the denominator is obv my winrate with it).