NL25 - Butchering Monsters

[Mal_Pais]

I need help here. I just butchered two monsters.

Hand 1:

Button is 76/4 over 25 hands. BB is 56/16 over 25 hands and and we've tangled a few times already. He took a nice pot away from me on the previous hand. I think he thinks I'm tilting, and I don't think he can lay down top pair.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.35
Hero: $22.15
Button: $19.35
SB: $16.52
BB: $26.87

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.6, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4.6, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $20.65</font>, 2 folds.
Uncalled bets: $20.65 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $6.6

Hand 2:

Been here for 9 hands, no reads.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $38.08
Hero: $24.05
Button: $35.28
SB: $28.45
BB: $24.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.5</font>, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $23.55</font>, 3 folds.
Uncalled bets: $22.55 returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: $10

How would you bet these?

[amoeba]

I don't see the problem.

getting a fold in hand 2 is what you want.

and he likely didn't have an ace in hand 1.

[Mal_Pais]

Thank you, Amoeba. I wasn't thinking clearly about the remaining A in hand 1.

[nyc999]

<u>Hand 1</u>

PF raise a smaller amount unless 6x is your standard. You don't want to vary your pf raises by the strength of your hand.

Do you normally c-bet? If you do, bet the flop. If you don't, bet the flop anyway. You have a nice size pot and a 1/2-3/4 bet will make it even better.

The turn would probably be different if you bet the flop. As played, raise to about $7-$8. This will allow you to get the rest in on the river.

<u>Hand 2</u>

This is a tougher hand, especially w/o reads.

I would be inclined to raise or fold before calling the pf min-raise. Maybe a raise to $1.50 to get a heads-up flop.

With 9 clean outs on the flop and it appears little FE, I would probably fold. But villain folded, so what do I know?

[blah99]

I raise to about $10 on the turn in hand1, with the intention of getting the rest in on the river.

[AntonHeat]

first hand raise to like 5-7$ instead of pushing

second hand was well played, you want him to fold

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Hand 1</u> The turn would probably be different if you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's wishful thinking. There probably wouldn't be a turn card.

But that's the problem with top set -- unlike middle or bottom set, you have all the top-pair cards but one and the chances of anyone else liking their hand is slim.

You might as well lead the flop, hoping it looks like a CB, but expect to take down the pot unless there's a draw, an underset, or bottom two out. In the rare cases that someone else does like their hand enough to play for stacks, betting the flop will keep you from losing value. In the other 90% of cases, a meek probe bet on the turn was all you were ever going to get out of this hand.

Most inexperienced players love to trap for the meek probe bet. Most experienced players salivate at the prospect of playing for stacks.

[Mal_Pais]

[ QUOTE ]
PF raise a smaller amount unless 6x is your standard. You don't want to vary your pf raises by the strength of your hand.

Do you normally c-bet? If you do, bet the flop. If you don't, bet the flop anyway. You have a nice size pot and a 1/2-3/4 bet will make it even better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mostly likely FPS, but my intent was to get BB in this hand while he could still smell warm blood. Couldn't put SB on a hand.

I would normally c-bet this flop, but neither one of these guys seem interested. When BB bet the turn, I was hoping he had something he liked and that my push would look like the desparate act of a tilt monkey.

[flubsy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
<u>Hand 1</u> The turn would probably be different if you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's wishful thinking. There probably wouldn't be a turn card.

But that's the problem with top set -- unlike middle or bottom set, you have all the top-pair cards but one and the chances of anyone else liking their hand is slim.

You might as well lead the flop, hoping it looks like a CB, but expect to take down the pot unless there's a draw, an underset, or bottom two out.

&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the prospect of playing for stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

nod-nod-nod

bet the flop-bet the flop- bet the flop.

You'll like it. ;-)

[BigBrother]

hand 2:

Why do people always think a flush draw is the nuts?

At those tables, you get called with top pair or an overpair a good portion of the time. There is little dead money in the pot, so you are essentially racing with either player who may decide to call. BB is less likely to call since he's squeezed, but what reason do you have to believe the pfr will lay down when he overbet the pot with his flop raise?

The only thing you have going is that your draw is to the nuts, and one of your overs may be good if it hits.

I don't hate it, but it seems very high variance on those tables.


Let me take a stab at the math:

Estimating that you win 35% when called, you are betting $24 to win $29 (assuming some sort of weighted average that BB will usually fold and pfr will be the one who usually calls) win called and $9 when you get a fold.

If X = fraction of time it is folded to you:

EV = (1-X)(.35($29)-.65($24)) + (X)($9)

solving for X: 0= (1-X)(-$5.45) + (X)($9);

or X= 5.45/14.45 = 0.37, or a little over 1/3.

So you break even if they will fold about 1/3 of the time, which seems about what you'll get at those tables.

my analysis is most sensitive to the % you are good when called. If you are more likely to have both overs good, your EV goes up, if you are more likely to be against a set, your EV goes down.

If you are good 40% when called, then you only need to get a fold 1/4 of the time to profit, which looks much better.