(33 speed) Push or Fold and why?

[AceRat138]

PartyPoker $33 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t4145)
Button (t12140)
Hero (t1340)
BB (t2375)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>

What is the calling range of Villian? Should I push or fold? According to pro tools this is a push if villian is calling with 74% of hands or less and a fold if he is calling with more. Should I take the gamble because I feel that if I win I can play better ITM than my opponents, or should I fold because ICM suggests I do so? Thoughts?

[bones]

Push because math is your friend.

[Yorick]

This is an any two push.

[AceRat138]

If you do the ICM calculation the "MATH" says that you should fold this hand. I am pretty sure that BB is calling almost ATC. If he is calling ATC this is a -EV push. That is why I posted it here. I thought that this would be +EV but according to Pro Tools it is not.

[MaltbyStu]

[ QUOTE ]
If you do the ICM calculation the "MATH" says that you should fold this hand. I am pretty sure that BB is calling almost ATC. If he is calling ATC this is a -EV push. That is why I posted it here. I thought that this would be +EV but according to Pro Tools it is not.

[/ QUOTE ]


The thing is you say ALMOST any two. AT 85% range this is a push and with your stack you will have SOME FE.
Next time you won't. You have to push here.

Stu

[AceRat138]

No, if you want a .1% edge he has to only be calling with 79%. In this situation he has to call 700 more chips. This being the case, I think that his calling range is higher than 79% and leans towards ATC.

[bones]

He's calling less than 80%, I promise. Combine that with the fact that walking him [censored] you in a very bad way, it's a super easy push.

[AceRat138]

I agree that walking is not really a good idea, but again, I really don't think he is calling with that few of hands. I know that I am calling ATC there. If I put my self in his place, I know SB is pushing any two and if I fold to his push I am [censored]. You don't think that most players realize this and make the call with ATC? Am I giving my opponents too much credit?

[proell]

believe it or not, you are giving your opps too much credit.
Most players at this level don't actually understand the math here, and will continue to muck 94s, etc. getting &gt; 2:1 odds.
Really depends on the opp, obv, but my guess is that the calling range here is often in the range of 60%-70%.

[cakewalk]

push because i love maf. &lt;3 maf.