Probablility and The Fundamental Theorem of Poker

[four-flush]

I understand what you are saying although I'm not sure I agree.

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you flip a coin and you can see the outcome and I can't. For me, the probability that the outcome is Heads is 0.5, whereas for you it is either 0 (you know the outcome is Tails) or 1 (you know the outcome is Heads).

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The 0.5 heads/tails can be used as a prediction of what will happen, so your example doesn't apply because it assumes one of us knows the outcome to start off with! (Probabilities imho are about seeing the chance that something will happen, not whether you or I know the answer beforehand. That's not probability).

Now, if you say that the body of knowledge that human beings have amassaed is certainly limited, can improve and is by no means "perfect" than I am on your side! Then, I can say, "the way we do things now, (theories of poker) is subject to our knowledge of mathematics and in particular probability and, as we improve this knowledge, we shall advance poker theory." However, to say that our "theorum" of poker or probability is flawed because it is not a measure of reality, is not true. It may limited - because we can improve theory - but it is certainly not flawed.

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