Does always going in ahead GAURENTEE LongTerm Profit?

[xBluffa]

Hi,

I would like to know the answer to a fairly simple question.

In NL Holdem.
If I always get my money in the pot with the best hand am I gaurenteed long term success? Or are there other factors I need to consider?

Eg.
I have TT
opponent has A9
flop is 9s5c3d
We both go all-in.


I ask this, because over the last 2 months I have consistantly been in this situation and I am consistantly losing.

Do I need to consider stack sizes or bankroll?? or should I always win longterm no matter what.


Thanks.

[oyvindgee]

If your entire poker game consisted of getting it all in with TT vs A9 then you'll soon be a rich man. But the game is more than that and you could be spewing chips in other situations. That specific situation will show an average profit sooner or later though.

[xBluffa]

no, I pretty much wait until I know I am ahead and then I get all my chips in.
and then I lose.
lol

[kazana]

Also, there are situations where you may be ahead, but still are an underdog.

Example:
You're holding A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain's holding J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
You're ahead, but still a 2-1 dog

[NozeCandy]

I'm not sure if anything in life is GAURENTEED.

[o0o0o0o]

In the very long run, your supposed to be profiting. Nothing is guarantted though but this shows you have a statistical edge. In most cases if I think I'm statisically ahead, I have no problem commiitting chips to the pot. The only thing you have to consider that can really alter this, is the stack sizes. For example, say you get all in and win with short stacks and get all in and loose with deep stacks, than your statiscally loosing. You have to make the same plays against the same stack sizes an even number of times to really get a feel for profiting in the long run. Can't profit if your loosing more with deep stacks than your winning with short stacks over the long run.

[Bill King]

[ QUOTE ]
I always win longterm no matter what.


Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

[xBluffa]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing you have to consider that can really alter this, is the stack sizes. For example, say you get all in and win with short stacks and get all in and loose with deep stacks, than your statiscally loosing. You have to make the same plays against the same stack sizes an even number of times to really get a feel for profiting in the long run. Can't profit if your loosing more with deep stacks than your winning with short stacks over the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I am wondering about..
because I always seem to win when I have a short stack, but then at some stage get outdrawn by a big stack and lose ALL my chips.. so even if I win 70% of my hands, the 30% that I lose cause me to go broke.

How do I avoid this?

[RIDGE45]

[ QUOTE ]
That specific situation will show an average profit sooner or later though.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this "later" may be after you are dead and gone. Hypothetically you could run bad in this situation your whole life.

Even though statistics say that over an infinite number of trials you are guaranteed to make profit. In other words, the long run may be longer than you think.

But in reality, yeah, you will make profit...sooner or later [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]RIDGE[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[NozeCandy]

That was possibly the worst post I have ever read.