QQ rivers set vs. aggressive villian

[nirfdog]

Party 3/6, 10 handed, Villian is 36/10/1.4 after 160 hands
Preflop: folds to SB who completes, Hero raises w/Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Villian calls.
Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian donks, Hero raises, Villian calls.
Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian donks, Hero raises, Villian 3-bets, Hero calls.
River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian bets, hero raises, villian 3-bets, hero caps, villian calls.
How are the river and turn plays?

[BenA]

Looks okay to me, though I might just call the river 3-bang. Of course its unlikely he just made a flush considering his earlier agression, but, if the queen made a higher straight, you were already drawing dead. Its far more likely this loose of a player has a set or 2 pair, both of which you now beat. With a 1.4 AF, he probably wouldn't 3 bet a busted diamond draw, so his hand is made. Its really the straight we're most worried about, which is why I MIGHT not cap river. But I may just be missing value [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BenA]

I've changed my mind. I like the river cap, and I'll tell you why. We're only behind T9, 54, or two clubs. Even though all of those are highly probable with a 30 VPIP (probably more like 60 when this type of player completes in SB), J7, J8, JT, 76, 89, JTd, and so on are all equally as likely.

He loves his hand on the turn so I'm guessing at least a pair and a draw. The river cap is just risking 1 bet to win another, so I think you are good here at least 50% of the time against lots of possibilities. Nice hand. If you lost it, well, you won tons of Sklansky bucks.

[SixForty]

Man - this hand is weird.

First of all, I love the open complete from the SB! That's hilarious!

But I honestly can't think of a hand that makes any sense here.

- he donks into the preflop raiser, so he's got to have something: pair, two pair, set, straight draw, flush draw, anything's possible
- then he just calls a raise, so he's saying he knows you are serious
- when the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits and he donks again, that often means it either helped his hand, or he doesn't want to give a freecard. But when he 3bets now on the turn, I've gotta think that the turn card really helped him: at least two pair? possible set of 8's? T9 for the straight?
- when you just call the turn, and he bets the river, then you raise to tell him that the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] helped your hand, and he 3bets again, this is where I lose any idea as to what range to put him on. Therefore, he's an aggressive maniac!

Cap it, and start reaching for the pot before he even turns over his cards!

(Seriously though, I probably go back into my shell and just call his 3bet on the river - but I'm weak! Did he show you 97 of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?)

[SoftcoreRevolt]

I dig it, it doesn't look like he was drawing to anything with his play, instead maybe a set that he figured could get extra bets in with the donks.

Or AA. That'd be pretty funny.

[ontiltsoon]

By how he played it, I would put him on J8 or T9 but I can't see him betting an Inside Str8 Draw on the flop. just courious to know what he showed...

[Heisenb3rg]

I wouldn't cap the river, unless this guy is a complete maniac.

2 Clubs, 95, 45, T9 beats you, and this guy showed tons of agression on the turn when 3 of 4 of those holdings just made their hand. His donk on the flop could have meant he had a straight draw and was trying to get you to fold.

Another possibility is he had a pair on the flop, then hit a flush draw on the turn and was getting hyper agressive in a blind/blind battle and hit it on the river.

Set is extremly unlikely because hed probababily raise the pairs PF.
Two pair is a distinct possibility, but do you really thinks he 3-bets THIS river with two pair? Is he this agressive??

[TitanFan]

I'd just call the river 3-bet. His agression stats are close to being passive, so its very possible you are beat after the river 3 bet here, but you have to raise for the value of your set, so call the 3 bet and pray =)