LLO8 - Do you like a river value bet here?

[ZenMusician]

Comments appreciated on my line, thanks!

-ZEN

Pre-flop: (9 players) ZEN is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 2 folds, MP3 calls, ZEN calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12.5SB, 6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#cc0000">ZEN raises</font>, Button folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (11.25BB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#cc0000">ZEN bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (16.25BB, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#cc0000">ZEN bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, 2 folds.

Results:
Final pot: 19.25BB

[1MoreFish4U]

I would normally play the hand exactly the same way. The callers to the river likely held 2 pair, 23, or a low str8 draw. Most times you will pick up 1 more bet here. On occasion you will run into someone who had flopped a set of sixes and will pay off 2 extra river bets, but not often enough not to make it worthwhile.
A set of Jacks playing this passively is rare. Could someone have had a big wrap and 2 clubs in their hand so they saw the tunr, then decided to take off 1 more card to hit the nut str8 and got lucky? Yeah, I suppose.

[wiseheart]

agree, considering turn action,
easy river bet, rarely are your
opponents going to c/r you and
you can fold to a raise.

[1MoreFish4U]

You can fold to a raise, but as often as not you are going to be raised by someone with a weaker hand, that suspects you have missed your hand and are making a try at the pot.

I would rather pay off the raise and expect that most times I will come out on top.