trip aces on draw heavy board vs. blinds

[joewatch]

$100 PL Omaha 9-handed
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: Hero ( $215.50 )
Seat 9: ( $371.53 )
Seat 8: ( $302.75 )
Seat 2: ( $92.12 )
Seat 3: SB Loose calling station( $82 )
Seat 6: ( $92 )
Seat 1: ( $130 )
Seat 10: ( $63.25 )
Seat 5: BB ??? ( $100 )

Dealt to Hero [ 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
UTG calls [$1], hero calls [$1], 1 fold, MP calls [$1], 3 folds, blinds call.

** Dealing Flop ** ($5)[ J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]
SB bets [$2], BB raises [$4], Hero raises [$15], folded around, SB calls [$13], BB calls [$11].

** Dealing Turn ** )($50) [ Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
SB checks, BB checks, Hero ???

[glass_onion]

My thoughts are if they are any type of players, and if they actually hit they should be betting to stop you from drawing. You basically advertised trips, or a hella draw. Even if they are afraid you actually hit a st8, you didn't, and they are still drawing. A heart is a disaster, and you have outs if they did hit the st8. Clear bet.

[cmyr]

I'd take a free card. either one of them hit, one of them has weaker trips, or they both have diamonds. If you're ahead you'll stay ahead 70% of the time. If you get check raised for the full pot here you'll probably have to fold.


people loving drawing to broadway.


you've also got the ace of diamonds, though... that makes me like a check too, which would leave you a full pot-sized raise behind if a diamond hits and someone bets it.


so: free-card, no need to get bet of a hand where you've got very good combined equity.



if you bet HP and get c/r, you have no room to bluff-raise a diamond if someone leads into you on the river.

[glass_onion]

Ok, i'm going to think this one aloud.

Worst case, one hit the st8 another has a flush draw: You are:
As 9s 4c Ad 0.222 you
Jc Tc 9c Kh 0.583 st8
7c Td 9d 8h 0.194 flushdraw

in bad shape. How likely is this? Its a pretty crappy way to play ace high st8 given the draw heavy nature of the board, the fact that you represeted top trips, and therefore would likely check. Also, so many river cards that arent paired board or diamond (89T) who are DRAWING NOW, so will call. Finally, Q is not as likely to complete the st8 as a 9 or T.

Otherwise, he are likely opponent hands:
As 9s 4c Ad 0.583 you
Tc 9c Ah Jh 0.111 2 pair + oe
7c Td 9d 8h 0.306 9outst8draw, flush

*you lose 42% of the time, and they've established themselves as callers - so push the edge

As 9s 4c Ad 20 0.556 YOu
Jc Tc 9c Jh 4 0.139 lesser trips, insidest8
7c Td 9d 8h 10 0.306 9outst8draw, flush

*you lose 44% of the time.

Again, the pot is already large and they have established themselves as callers. Someone is obviously drawing, and you likely have huge equity. You may even lose a big bet on river if an 8 hits, unless the plan is check fold to 89TK or any diamond.

If anyone has a reason to dispute this, please detail why so and provide some calculations. This seems like an easy bet to me.

[Silent A]

The first question for me is, WTF is the BB doing? min-raising from BB with 3 left to act and then calling a (near) pot re-raise doesn't seem like a good line to take for just about any hand.

His play makes very little sense to me and the only resonable conclusion I can draw is that he has come down with fancy play syndrome and is looking to make a big check raise with the nuts + flush draw. Either that or he has 7s, flopped top 2 or 3 pair and couldn't let it go. It's also entirely possible that SB is looking to check-raise (calling stations get good hands too).

The other question is, what's your table image and are your opponents aware enough to notice it. Do they have reason to believe that you might not take the free card if it's checked to you? The converse to all this talk about "they wouldn't check to you if they hit the straight" is "they know you know that and are hoping you'll bet for that very reason".

They could also the type who don't like pushing straights on flush draw boards until the river.

I admit, I'm lost here. My default move is to play safe and take the free card.

[BluffTHIS!]

joe,

Against only one opponent I would always bet, but against two I would check because it is more likely one of them hit a straight and is waiting to checkraise, even though I wouldn't like checking. But another important reason to check, assuming they aren't total calling stations, is that you have the naked ace and if the flush comes can bluff raise a bet and present them with a bigger decision than if you bloat the pot which means one of them would be more likely to call with a smaller flush. This is read dependant of course, and if they are always calling with a small flush , then bluff raising would just be spewing.

[joewatch]

OK, thanks guys. I did in fact get check-raised and had to lay my hand down. The calling station rivered a split.