Are the idle bystanders the main beneficiaries of SNG bubble mistakes?

[protoverus]

The key is to be flexible.

If your opponents are calling too much on the bubble, then you can sit back and let them tangle. If your opponents go all weak trying to sneak in the money, pushing rules.

At low buyins you will see both mistakes. The key is figuring out who is who by the time you get there.

be well.

[el_dusto]

[ QUOTE ]
If a push is known to be +$EV (i.e. you know your opponent's calling range exactly), then by definition it must gain you equity, not lose you equity. You shouldn't avoid +$EV pushes just because bystanders gain equity too.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the problem, though -- sometimes we misunderestimate how totally not-awesome our opponents are, and that screws up our perceived equity.

I think the effect of being a profitable bystander is increased at bubbles with 2 or 3 bad players, just because you can gain that much more equity by not subjecting yourself to loose calls or bad postflop situations.

[Guthrie]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it SuitedSixes who posted a thread about passive play on the bubble? Does some one have a link to that? It goes into the thinking of staying out of the way of these players and letting them make mistakes which ultimately will benefit you.

[/ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=0#Post5047255

[jws43yale]

I really like the train of thought here so far and although I don't have anything majorly philosophical to add I can think of several situation where others bad play costs you or helps you.

First, there are times when you have 5 BB's or less on the bubble and are basically even stacked with one other player. The small stack player to your right is pushing every hand, gaining equity. Then the big stack on your left is a donkey prone to bad calls which will cost you EV. Then the big stack to the right of the other small stack never pushes from the SB but instead completes, letting the other small stack win pots for 2 BB's which further costs you equity. This to me is by far one of the most frustrating situations that occur due to poor bubble play.

The postive thing is when you are small stacked on the bubble and the two big stacks manage to get themselves tangled allowing you to get ITM.

[FoldYourLife]

I would like to compliment your line of thinking here. The basic and generalized solution to your problem is that when you think your opponents are calling too loosely and w/ a wider range of hands than normal, then you should tighten up your pushing range. I have been to the point where two donk villains were trading their chips back-and-forth on the bubble, and I let myself get blinded down to a much lower level than normal. Sometimes it is better to stay out of their way, but generally you still have to play your game, albeit a little more tightly.

[Nick Rainey]

You guys are thinking way to hard. On the bubble if I have one face card I am pushing everytime. 19% ROI Holla

[FoldYourLife]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are thinking way to hard. On the bubble if I have one face card I am pushing everytime. 19% ROI Holla

[/ QUOTE ]
Joking I assume?

[ryanghall]

You'd be shocked how many supposedly "good" players at the 225s don't realize what you already know.

I was called last night by monsters such as 44 and QJo by people who were NOT shortstacks on the bubble. Sucks for both the pusher and the caller. Does it really take that high of an IQ to realize that? Some people just have too much pride...

Ryan

[trojanrabbit]

I wrote a couple articles about this several months ago for the 2+2 Mag. What everyone is saying is basically true. Take a look at this graph which shows both our equity and our opponent's equity as a function of how often they call:

This is on the bubble, everyone has 2000 chip stacks and blinds are 100/200. It's folded to you in the SB. The "correct" play for you to make is to push 100% of the time. His "correct" response is to call only 12%. That's the dashed line on the graph. He suffers if he calls more often than 12%, but you suffer too! It's the players that aren't involved in the hand that gain when our opponent calls too much.

So what can you do? Push less frequently if you think he'll call too much. Here's another graph that shows our equity depending on how often we push and how often he calls:

This graph is the same situation as before but only 7BB stacks. By not pushing as often, we lose a little bit of equity if he plays right, but we save ourself from danger if he's really loose. You've got to know who you're up against.

Tysen

[beeyjay]

good post.

there are a lot of times other than just when the player makes a bad call on your push that players playing incorrectly hurt you.

for instance i was just playing a tourney where a player limped from cu with 99 or something. blinds were high enough that this was the easiest push ever, but he limped. i had A3 or something in the bb with a big enough stack to fold him assuming he wasnt that strong limping from the cu there. he obviously called and i was [censored]. had he played the hand correctly and pushed, i would have folded and not been eliminated.

the only thing i can say is not to worry about it too much. bad players making bad calls does [censored] you but overall those are the players giving you money so its just a minor glitch. fwiw at lower buyins i think people should push far less and work to be those people on the sidelines you talk about because the likelihood of somebody calling with j8 is just too high.