25NL 6-max Nut straight on river with paired board

boomboom · #1 07-28-2006, 02:40 AM

Villain is 45/7/1.5. I've been at the table with him for about half an hour and I haven't seen him do anything out of line or show down anything weak. How often am I good here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB ($34.20)
Hero ($33.55)
UTG ($6.45)
MP ($46.18)
Button ($20.32)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, Button calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.75, Button calls $0.75, SB calls $0.50.

Turn: ($3) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, Button calls $2, SB calls $2.

River: ($9) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, Button folds, SB calls $31.20 (All-In).

Hero???

Nick C · #2 07-28-2006, 03:29 AM

Well, let's see. Assuming this is not a huge river checkraise-bluff (and I really doubt it is), then the only hand Villain could have that he didn't decide to start slowplaying somewhere is a Q5 hand that feared a flopped straight.

What I don't really know (but I'm trying to learn) is what kind of a hand NL25 players tend to need to make a push like this.

But here are some combos:

55 = 1
44 = 3
33 = 3
54 = 6
53 = 6
Q5 = 6

76 = 9

A2 = 16
62 = 12

Surely we should discount the 62 at least a little bit, even if our loose opponent was in the SB. But then how much can we hope for A5 or even 5x?

I don't know what you should do, but getting about 5:3 with the best possible straight, I really want to call.

EMc · #3 07-28-2006, 01:35 PM

a. Your bet sizing sucks.
b. Call. You have him beat. TP is the nuts, so when he hits trips, is even more the nuts.