Good News 4 US - but odds on passage get better???

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

The Tradesports contract is probably not any more reliable than a broad, ballpark estimate. There just isn't enough volume. Several of the dramatic shifts we've seen have been triggered by one -- literally one -- person buying or selling a substantial number of shares.

[Mr.K]

Absent substantial, direct insider information, those TS prices don't make any sense the way they've fluctuated. As others have said, volume is very low right now. I gather I own about 10% of the contracts in circulation, FWIW.

Up until the word of the holds got out, 20 to 30 was a very fair price, and now that we've seen the political/procedural environment firm up a little, giving us a high degree of short term certainty (now thru first week of Sept), and only a moderate degree of longer term knowledge (Sept is truly a wild card, post-election lame duck less so), I would expect to see some range and fluctuation in the prices, but not quite this much. I won't buy above 18 knowing what I know now, and I won't sell below 28 or so. Anything inbetween those numbers seems IMO to be a wash, esp. with the fees TS charges for price takers. Take that for what it's worth, and know that my positions might change at the drop of a hat.