Thoughts on this river?

[bigredlemon]

No particular reads, although no one in the hand was particularly impressive and I wouldn't be surprised if their poker training is limited to watching the WPT. The table was quite loose and somewhat agressive. UTG literally plays everyhand and is aggressive enough to just have a pair of jacks or aces in this spot, although he certainly could have a big hand too.


Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Button raises, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP raises, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP raises, CO folds, Button 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls, MP calls, button calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP raises, Button 3-bets, Hero ??

[Hielko]

Easy fold.

but why not simply bet out on the river? You capped the turn and for most opponents the river will be a scare card so you risk that it is going to checked trough.

[TripleH68]

Crazy hand.

I usually bet out on a flop like this to trap callers between me and the preflop raiser. As you played it you are stuck smooth calling, but then why not sneak in a 3-bet? You have four clean outs to the nuts, one of which is a str8 flush!

The river is confusing [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img], but the only hand that beats you is a higher flush. Bet out. Where are all the red cards!? Button did not play this like a flush. MP did. I don't want to believe it could ever be correct in limit to check and call a cap on the river... <sigh>

[SixForty]

Weird hand.

I'd lead that flop, since I'd consider the hand to have 12 outs (until someone tells me otherwise) which means a ton of equity. With the preflop aggressor on my right, I want to trap all the other players on the flop. Betting out does this the best.

Once you don't, you can't check/raise the button because then you lose all your customers. But after MP raises, I'm definitely going to 3bets there.

Turn is an easy lead, raise, 3bet, cap, whatever you need to do to bump it!

River I'd lead, because I really want to know where I am here. MP and Button didn't really play their hands like a flush draw, so I'm not too scared of them. UTG may have a flush here, since he just called all the way. But given your description of UTG, sounds like he could be betting this river with AJ or even JT here. If you led out and he raised, I might be more inclined to believe it as a flush.

But against these opponents, you never really know. I think I may make a crying call here (of 3 cold! is that possible! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) if these guys are as bad as you say.

[Harv72b]

I started to say that this was an easy river fold, until I noticed the action on the prior streets. The turn especially.

UTG could have any two cards, according to your read, even when he gets all the way to the river and then bets at it. MP played the flop like a flush, possibly, but he didn't play the turn that way. Button raised preflop and 3-bet the turn, neither of which are indicative of a rivered flush on this board; I think he's more likely holding a set and is a little slow in noticing that it's not good.

You also have to consider the ripple effect of your read on UTG; if he's that loose and crazy aggressive, then MP and Button are going to be raising his river bet a lot lighter than they normally would. And your bet/cap action on the turn has to confuse them, as it does not look at all like a flush either.

The pot is enormous. None of your opponents have played the hand like a flush draw, with the exception of UTG who you know is just a fruitloop. I think you have to call 3 here and hope for the best, and call another if someone caps behind you...I don't like capping it yourself both because it could be costing you an extra bet when you aren't good, and because it discourages overcalls.

And yes, lead the river 100% of the time.