TT vs a tight player

[ajm36]

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Even if he's a bad player and doesn't care about position and raises with 6% of his hands, you are still an underdog. So a fold preflop is easily justified, imo.

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This is not true.
Your PF equity HU against his PF raising range is 53%(plug it into Pokerstove and see)--you are ahead, he is the underdog, you should definitely raise.

[shant]

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Even if he's a bad player and doesn't care about position and raises with 6% of his hands, you are still an underdog. So a fold preflop is easily justified, imo.

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This is not true.
Your PF equity HU against his PF raising range is 53%(plug it into Pokerstove and see)--you are ahead, he is the underdog, you should definitely raise.

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You're being too generous in your range I think. He only raises 6% of his hands, and that number should be discounted because he is raising from EP.

I'd say his range is AA-JJ, AKs, AQs, AKo, AQo.

[ajm36]

Just asking, ATs, AQ, TT, 99 are within his range and are likely to fold to a turn bet. Everything else in his range stays (AK, AJ, JJ-AA, KQ). We are ahead of about 25% of his PFR range (except for TT which most likely folds to the turn bet). Since most of the hands we are ahead of fold to a turn bet, and we are riskig one BB to get 4.5 BB's, shouldn't we b/f. If we adjust vil's PFR for his position, his raising range is further reduced and we might not have the odds to bet this, but I think this might be a narrow +EV bet. Am I wrong? Please tell me why.

[AlmightyJay]

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Just asking, ATs, AQ, TT, 99 are within his range and are likely to fold to a turn bet. Everything else in his range stays (AK, AJ, JJ-AA, KQ). We are ahead of about 25% of his PFR range (except for TT which most likely folds to the turn bet). Since most of the hands we are ahead of fold to a turn bet, and we are riskig one BB to get 4.5 BB's, shouldn't we b/f. If we adjust vil's PFR for his position, his raising range is further reduced and we might not have the odds to bet this, but I think this might be a narrow +EV bet. Am I wrong? Please tell me why.

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This guy's range from this position almost certainly doesn't include ATs, TT, 99.

[shant]

I just said I think your range is way too wide for a player that tight raising in UTG+2. My range is off because I confused this with another hand I just read where someone was capped preflop. Since he only called preflop, his range to me is now JJ, AK-AJ, maybe QQ. In my range for him that turn card is horrible. Trust me I'm all for making hopeless autobets with my pair hands but lately I've been slowing down and I think this is a horrible turn card and I don't want to put anymore money into the pot.

Plus, when he pairs his King or his Jack he isn't automatically raising so you can't take those hands out of his range. You 3-bet preflop and bet a King turn. He might think you have AA because he's tight and afraid, or maybe he has AK and he wants to raise the river. He can also just call the flop to raise the turn with JJ or QQ or whatever. People do retarded things.

I'm sorry my poker analysis is never very EV centric or math driven but this is what I would be thinking in the hand.

[Genz]

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Even if he's a bad player and doesn't care about position and raises with 6% of his hands, you are still an underdog. So a fold preflop is easily justified, imo.

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This is not true.
Your PF equity HU against his PF raising range is 53%(plug it into Pokerstove and see)--you are ahead, he is the underdog, you should definitely raise.

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Are you sure you weren't reading from the wrong field? Because evaluating it with stove was just what I did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8882 % 51.94% 00.95% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 47.1118 % 46.17% 00.95% { TT }

And moreover, 6% are too much, because he probably knows about position and therefore will only raise like 3 or 4%.

[Genesis]

It seems like most people agree that folding the turn or river was the correct play, which makes me at least feel I'm on the right track. When I 3bet preflop I really felt this was a 50/50 proposition vs this opponent. I guessed his range as TT+, or AQ+, maybe AJs, but that's about it. With his passiveness and the extra money from the blinds I figured it was +EV HU. I was undecided about betting or simply check-folding the turn and based on responses it seems that it is probably close. Thanks.

[McHonts]

--- grunch ---

It looks to me like the only likely holding that you beat is AQ and I would expect that to get checked behind. seems like a good lay down to me.

[ajm36]

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Even if he's a bad player and doesn't care about position and raises with 6% of his hands, you are still an underdog. So a fold preflop is easily justified, imo.

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This is not true.
Your PF equity HU against his PF raising range is 53%(plug it into Pokerstove and see)--you are ahead, he is the underdog, you should definitely raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure you weren't reading from the wrong field? Because evaluating it with stove was just what I did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8882 % 51.94% 00.95% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 2: 47.1118 % 46.17% 00.95% { TT }

And moreover, 6% are too much, because he probably knows about position and therefore will only raise like 3 or 4%.

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I was reading from the correct field, but I was evaluating JJ [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[ajm36]

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If we adjust vil's PFR for his position, his raising range is further reduced and we might not have the odds to bet this

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