UB 3/6 KK rivered set

lerxst337 · #1 07-24-2006, 06:22 PM

Villian in hand is a spectacular 29/1/0.56. I seriously considered folding the turn, but I'm not that good yet with so many draws on the board, and I commit to showing down. Then the river hits me upside the head.

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 5 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

I seriously don't know..., fold turn, b/f, b/c, sexy/fold, sexy/call--help!

bernie · #2 07-24-2006, 06:30 PM

Check call.

See what he's doing that on the turn with.

b

Haupt_234 · #3 07-24-2006, 06:52 PM

I would bet/call.

Haupt_234

SixForty · #4 07-24-2006, 06:53 PM

Definitely call the turn. You've got a redraw to the second nut flush which is more than enough outs if he has anything other than the nut flush. And he could be raising a set or even two pair there, which gives you more outs.

River is interesting. Against someone who is 0.56 postflop, I'm going to check/call. part of the reason is to see his hand and see if this is how he plays a flopped flush or a flopped set.

lerxst337 · #5 07-24-2006, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Definitely call the turn. You've got a redraw to the second nut flush which is more than enough outs if he has anything other than the nut flush. And he could be raising a set or even two pair there, which gives you more outs.

River is interesting. Against someone who is 0.56 postflop, I'm going to check/call. part of the reason is to see his hand and see if this is how he plays a flopped flush or a flopped set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Duh..., I didn't remember the flush draw when I posted this..., of course I wasn't folding the turn. Guess I should read the hands I post, eh?

ThomasPHoolery · #6 07-24-2006, 08:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet/call.

Haupt_234

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly think this is the best line.

Options for the river are pretty simple:
Check w/ the intention of c/r/c
Check w/ the intention of c/r/f
Check w/ the intention of c/c
Bet w/ the the intention of b/c
Bet w/ the intention of b/f

This is a river play that comes down to how many bets on average do we want going in on the river. In other words if x number of bets go in on the river, I am in front y% of the time. With this particular hand (as with most hands) as x increases, y decreases. As I see it there are really 4 options here in this equation, 0 bets, 1 bets, 2bets, 3 bets.

If 0 bets go in, you're ahead basically 100% of the time, but you earn no bets.
If 1 bet goes in, calculating how often we are ahead becomes a function of how the bet goes in. If it goes b/c, we're ahead the vast majority of the time. If it goes c/c, we have almost no idea how often we are ahead-- it becomes a funtion of putting villian on a range, determining where we stand against that range and go with it. You didn't provide sample size in OP (though I may be an idjiot and have missed it), but assuming we're talking sufficient # of hands, a 29 VPIP is cold calling w/ A LOT of stuff that we beat-- QJ, JT,T9, 99,88, hell, even JJ. If we c/c this river, that bet's going to be pretty near a wash.
Now, if 2 bets go in, and the sequence is b/r/c, we are probably behind his overall range, but the important idea here I think is he raises enough hands that we don't lose anywhere near a full BB vs c/c-- the second bet we put in on a b/c line is probably in the neighborhood of just about even, maybe a slightly -EV. If two bets go in via a c/r (and he calls and just calls), we're probably ahead of his range in that situation, but not by much. He's likely calling a straight, low flush in that situation (hands that beat us) so we're not earning a full BB on that-- let's call it +.5BB when that happens. If it goes c/r/r-- we're toast, we're losing more than the full BB put in because we rack disaprine and are making a crying call on the river.

So what does this all come together as?

Hero checking with the intention of calling:
(%time it goes check check*0BB)+(%time it goes check call*less than a big bet, but probably greater than zero)
Hero going for the check raise:
(%time it goes check check*0BB)+(+%time it goes c/r and villain folds *1BB)+(%time it goes check raise/call*1.5BB)+(%time it goes check/raise/villain reraises we call*-2.999999BB)+ (%time it goes check/raise/villain reraises we fold *-2BB)

Hero betting:
(% time villain just folds*0bb)+(%times villian calls*about 1BB)+(%time villain villain raises we call*1BB)

When we're toast-- Check/raising loses us many more big bets on average. Than just betting.
When we're ahead, but he still has a very good hand--check/raising makes us more than bet calling, but not by much, which makes us more than check calling.
When we're way ahead-- Depends entirely on villians tendancies, but checking does net slightly more.

Overall point: Our hand is basically strong enough that we want EXACTLY 1 or 2 bets to go in on the river. Situations where this happens are the most positive EV for us. The best way to achieve that by betting the river with the intention, of calling.

bernie · #7 07-25-2006, 03:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Options for the river are pretty simple:
Check w/ the intention of c/r/c
Check w/ the intention of c/r/f
Check w/ the intention of c/c
Bet w/ the the intention of b/c
Bet w/ the intention of b/f

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way I'm folding this river. I want the info on what he's doing on the turn. That alone is easily worth 1 bet here, imo. I don't want to pay more than 2 to see it. It's very likely he will bet behind me when checked to.

Once I get this players line down a bit more, then I can consider the other plays that may cost more that I can fold w/o the info.

To me, this is between a bet/call or check/call. Because of his AF, even though it's skewed a bit since it's '0' after only about 1/2 hour, I still think I'm behind more than not.

But, a bet doesn't necesarily mean you will be raised and have to pay 2 either.

b