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#1
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I've played a lot of hands with villain now, and he's a TAG who runs on the nittish side pre-flop (13/4/5). Yeah, that's a 5 post-flop AF, but it's entirely the result of a very low WSD (11%).
I've been running hot and playing very aggressively, so villain my think I'm full of it. 0.25/0.50 NLHE 6-max (6 players) Stacks: Hero - $84 MP - $45 Hero is on the Button w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Preflop: UTG calls, MP calls, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls ($9.75) Flop <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $7, UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $21</font>, Hero......? It's push or fold here. Which is it, and why? |
#2
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i only see one choice if you plan on continuing with this hand, which i would
EDIT: fine, you want justification. you've put in $10 of his stacksize so it's essentially $35 more to you. i assume he's calling so we're getting a shot at 55 for 35 - roughly 3:2. even against a set we're not too much worse than 3:2 and he has less than a set often if he's that aggressive. if he has a made straight, that kind of sucks, but we still have (presumably) nine outs to a hand that beats his and about a 30% shot at hitting. we have the 10s, which is helpful since we know he has no more than one spade if he has a straight. he probably has 0 though because i don't see a 13/4 calling a raise w/109o. basically, worst case, he has a set/straight and the odds are slightly against us. if he only does this with those hands, fine, you can fold |
#3
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Pretty obvious shove. You're not even in terrible shape against a set, and I don't think he would play a set like that.
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#4
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whhhhhhhhat.... easiest push since the dawn of poker
you have two nut draws and another straight draw.... even if you KNOW he has QQQ, you'll still win the hand 40% of the time and with the money already in the pot pushing against QQQ is +EV. Against 9T you're almost 45%. |
#5
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[ QUOTE ]
Pretty obvious shove. [/ QUOTE ] |
#6
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[ QUOTE ]
Pretty obvious shove. You're not even in terrible shape against a set, and I don't think he would play a set like that. [/ QUOTE ] Uh....yeah, he would [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] When the hand played out I figured I'd missed the read, especially considering how nittish this guy is. But since no one else saw it either, I don't feel so bad lol. And, as everyone pointed out, I'm not in bad shape, even against a set. |
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