another "big pot/ should I pay off?" question

[mathman711777]

6/12 BM

I have 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on button with 6 opponents and I raised and they all called

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] they all check, I bet, they all call

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] they all check, I bet get 4 calls

River J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG bets into me and all fold to me, so now there are 17BB in. UTG is loose-passive so his bet indicates just about a guaranteed straight or flush, but I must call as the pot is huge....or must I?

Comments appreciated.

[SixForty]

It looks like you are closing the action and the pot is large - call.

With 17 bets in there, you only need to be good here about 6% of the time. Could UTG have JT for the flopped straight draw that now has two pair? Or is he really that loose-passive?

[XmasXmas]

call and ask for a 6th street.

[micpic]

Just like SierraFox said, you only have to be good in this pot about 6%. Your just up against one hand and you will win this more then 6%.
Call the hand. But if you were not closing the action then I would not call down the hand.

[Haupt_234]

Looks like a call just because the pot is so big and you are closing the action.

I wouldn't expect to take it down much, though, since the loose passive player's bet into 4 players with that river card has you beat a TON of the time. But I think you should call just for the small possibility of an oddly played 2pair.

Haupt_234

[WMB]

Are you good 1 in 16 times here? From the description it looks like your good about 1 in 79 times. Easy fold.

[fishyak]

Also, if its early in the session - I don't want to show people that I might wuss out in these kinds of situations. Late in the session, my reads should be better and I would be more likely to fold it.

[Darrone]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you good 1 in 16 times here? From the description it looks like your good about 1 in 79 times. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think that an LP wouldnt bet out with 10j? i think its definately possible at least 1 out of 16 times. sshe makes some good points on the subject of river play.

[Marquoz]

Maybe UTG is clarkmeistering you and you should raise! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Okay, maybe not. I make the crying call.

[WMB]

from the given description of utg, when he bets the river into 4 live opponents with that board, three nines is good just about never, much less than 1 in 17 times. if the pot were heads up against an aggresive opponent, i might find a call.