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#21
07-20-2006, 03:50 AM
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Re: AQ
[ QUOTE ]
Any hand that doesn't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and wants to showdown will check the 4 flush river. Any hand that has a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] will call your river bet. How do you lose a bet? You want your money in on the turn against a better hand because you have >20% equity. You don't care where you get your money when YHIG because villian is so often drawing next to dead. This should be a pretty easy hand to analyse mathematically. All we need are % for how often villian is ahead/semibluff/bluff when he checkraises the turn. [/ QUOTE ] hmmm with the nut flush we get our money in with 100% equity against a lower flush, on the turn we may have the worst of it. True 
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#22
07-20-2006, 04:00 AM
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Re: AQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Any hand that doesn't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and wants to showdown will check the 4 flush river. Any hand that has a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] will call your river bet. How do you lose a bet? You want your money in on the turn against a better hand because you have >20% equity. You don't care where you get your money when YHIG because villian is so often drawing next to dead. This should be a pretty easy hand to analyse mathematically. All we need are % for how often villian is ahead/semibluff/bluff when he checkraises the turn. [/ QUOTE ] hmmm with the nut flush we get our money in with 100% equity against a lower flush, on the turn we may have the worst of it. True [/ QUOTE ] The only question is how often we have the worst of it on the turn when he checkraises. You make about ~98% of a BB against all worse hands. You lose only ~75% of a BB to better hands.
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#23
07-20-2006, 04:05 AM
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Re: AQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Any hand that doesn't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and wants to showdown will check the 4 flush river. Any hand that has a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] will call your river bet. How do you lose a bet? You want your money in on the turn against a better hand because you have >20% equity. You don't care where you get your money when YHIG because villian is so often drawing next to dead. This should be a pretty easy hand to analyse mathematically. All we need are % for how often villian is ahead/semibluff/bluff when he checkraises the turn. [/ QUOTE ] hmmm with the nut flush we get our money in with 100% equity against a lower flush, on the turn we may have the worst of it. True [/ QUOTE ] The only question is how often we have the worst of it on the turn when he checkraises. You make about ~98% of a BB against all worse hands. You lose only ~75% of a BB to better hands. [/ QUOTE ] You say we are checking the river without improvement, if he c/r then bets the river 100% of the time (which I imagine he does with both hands that beat us and don't beat us) then it's almost the exact same, however we get the chance to get 2 bets in with 100% equity as opposed to 25% equity. True
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#24
07-20-2006, 04:33 AM
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Re: AQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Any hand that doesn't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and wants to showdown will check the 4 flush river. Any hand that has a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] will call your river bet. How do you lose a bet? You want your money in on the turn against a better hand because you have >20% equity. You don't care where you get your money when YHIG because villian is so often drawing next to dead. This should be a pretty easy hand to analyse mathematically. All we need are % for how often villian is ahead/semibluff/bluff when he checkraises the turn. [/ QUOTE ] hmmm with the nut flush we get our money in with 100% equity against a lower flush, on the turn we may have the worst of it. True [/ QUOTE ] The only question is how often we have the worst of it on the turn when he checkraises. You make about ~98% of a BB against all worse hands. You lose only ~75% of a BB to better hands. [/ QUOTE ] You say we are checking the river without improvement, if he c/r then bets the river 100% of the time (which I imagine he does with both hands that beat us and don't beat us) then it's almost the exact same, however we get the chance to get 2 bets in with 100% equity as opposed to 25% equity. True [/ QUOTE ] Yes, you're right. I just did some hobo maths and I [censored] up.
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#25
07-20-2006, 07:26 AM
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Re: AQ
[ QUOTE ]
3bet the c/r for a free showdown. [/ QUOTE ] against an unknown at 2/4 i don't think this is a good idea. IMO, the style of play at 2/4 is generally just not aggressive to the point where you will be shown a bluff/semi-bluff often enough to make a 3-bet profitable. i like how waffle played this hand. turn bet is good, especially with the picked up draw.
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