Doyle Brunson's exit pot in HORSE

[JohnnyFX]

At this point they really need to build one into the site. If they don't have the technology/programming skills necessary (maybe call Paul Phillips?), they need to have the mods do it manually. A little graphic above each post (10 stars perhaps?) would work nicely.

(Edited for spelling)

[Russ M.]

This entire thread is a litmus test to weed out the people who aren't too gud at the internets. Congrats to lawman007 for finally getting it! TUBES! JUST A SERIES OF TUBES!

[Howard Treesong]

I'll give you a hint: he had nine tackles for losses in 1995.

[Rianna]

Disrespecting Doyle by calling him, referring to him as Donkey, you can start there.

[betgo]

I ran J6o on PokerStove versus typical ranges for a limping hand and a raising hand. I get about 18%. There was some chance the limping would fold to the raise or one player would bet out the other after the flop. The raiser's range may e weaker than this.

Presumably Brunson had just over 4xBB before posting. So he was putting in 3 BB and the total pot was 14 BB. So he was putting in 21% of the money.

It seems like a pretty close gamble in terms of cEV. It is 4-1 he is out of the tournament if he loses, but he has chances to win the whole thing if he wins the hand.

If he folds, he has 3xBB in SB and is likely going to be in a similar situation. If he folds there he has about 2.4 x BB on the button, 2.2 x BB in CO, and so on as he gets anted down.

I would probably have folded here, but it is close. At this stage, you are looking for a situation as much as a hand and you have to go allin sometime real soon.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11,482,470 games 29.922 secs 383,746 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.8577 % 17.54% 00.32% { J6o }
Hand 2: 51.5832 % 50.47% 01.12% { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 30.5591 % 29.37% 01.19% { KK+, TT-22, AQs-A9s, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KJo+ }

[Snoh84]

I was at the final table for Doyle's last hand, and I'll tell you what I saw from my perspective.

As is often the case, the last hand is not what you should be focusing on, but rather the big hands that led up to that hand.

Doyle entered the day 2nd in chips and made a huge laydown to Chip Reese where he lost a sizeable amount of his chips. We don't know the cards, but Doyle said he laid down a big hand because he read Chip for strength. Chip later said after he won that he picked up KK against Brunson in that situation. I don't think Chip has any incentive to lie here after the event is over and the hand is going to be shown on TV anyway, so to Doyle, nice read. Here's the hand as reported on CP:

37. Doyle Brunson raises to $70,000 from under the gun. Chip Reese makes the call as does David Singer from the button. The flop comes 7spade3heart2club and Brunson bets $220,000. Reese raises to $440,000 and Singer folds. Brunson thinks for a few moments before folding his hand. Reese rakes the pot.


Throughout the day, this situation repeated itself, with Doyle losing big pots after laying down his hand or losing big coinflips (He lost a huge coinflip all-in to T.J holding KJ against 99).

On the last hand, Doyle was in the BB. There was already 27k in antes + 65k raise from Singer + 65k call from Bechtel + 20k BB = 157k. It cost Doyle 45k to call, giving him about 3.5:1 on his money. If he folds here, he has 80k, or 4 big blinds left.

On the flop, Doyle was facing a bet-raise and action was to him. He knew he was dead, but he had 8k left in a side pot that would have over 300k. Blinds were 10k/20k with a 3k ante. How can he fold here?

Doyle actually took about half a minute to think about his hand, chuckled, and tossed his chips in, knowing he was dead. He had a big smile on his face and was a little sheepish in showing his hand after Singer folded and both players showed. You'll see the hand on TV.

[CaryDarling]

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He is an OK HORSE player, but he doesn't know how to play NLHE. The change in games really hurt him.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what does that make the rest of us?

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Yeh, I know he wrote some book on NLHE. His advice seems real reckless. Doesn't work in the live 1/2 game I play in. Better to wait for big hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL the book wasn't written for 1/2 NL with a capped buy in, it was written for true NL. A game where you can buy in at any amount covering the rest of the table, then pushing them around, putting them to the test at every possible moment.

[CaryDarling]

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Is he some up-and-coming internet punk? A charter member of the Crew? I'm lost. Is he related to Todd Brunson? Is Todd his dad or something?

[/ QUOTE ]
No relation. He's just paying tribute to Todd by using his name. Sort of like the Von Erichs. It's a Texas thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ Von Erichs
<<<Born and raised in Fort Worth
Grew up watching the Von Erichs take on the Freebirds...so sad about them tho'. They are like the Kennedy's of Wrestling. So much success, and so much tragedy...LOL...thanks for bringing up some great memories.

[55Darryl]

[ QUOTE ]
I was at the final table for Doyle's last hand, and I'll tell you what I saw from my perspective.

As is often the case, the last hand is not what you should be focusing on, but rather the big hands that led up to that hand.

Doyle entered the day 2nd in chips and made a huge laydown to Chip Reese where he lost a sizeable amount of his chips. We don't know the cards, but Doyle said he laid down a big hand because he read Chip for strength. Chip later said after he won that he picked up KK against Brunson in that situation. I don't think Chip has any incentive to lie here after the event is over and the hand is going to be shown on TV anyway, so to Doyle, nice read. Here's the hand as reported on CP:

37. Doyle Brunson raises to $70,000 from under the gun. Chip Reese makes the call as does David Singer from the button. The flop comes 7spade3heart2club and Brunson bets $220,000. Reese raises to $440,000 and Singer folds. Brunson thinks for a few moments before folding his hand. Reese rakes the pot.


Throughout the day, this situation repeated itself, with Doyle losing big pots after laying down his hand or losing big coinflips (He lost a huge coinflip all-in to T.J holding KJ against 99).

On the last hand, Doyle was in the BB. There was already 27k in antes + 65k raise from Singer + 65k call from Bechtel + 20k BB = 157k. It cost Doyle 45k to call, giving him about 3.5:1 on his money. If he folds here, he has 80k, or 4 big blinds left.

On the flop, Doyle was facing a bet-raise and action was to him. He knew he was dead, but he had 8k left in a side pot that would have over 300k. Blinds were 10k/20k with a 3k ante. How can he fold here?

Doyle actually took about half a minute to think about his hand, chuckled, and tossed his chips in, knowing he was dead. He had a big smile on his face and was a little sheepish in showing his hand after Singer folded and both players showed. You'll see the hand on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure there are no implications here that Doyle dumped. But keep this in mind. Doyle knows he has one maybe two WSOP's left. He went all that a way. A grueling 3 days. He isn't about to get that close to his record 11th WSOP bracelet especially in a historic tournament of that magnitude and not be trying his hardest to win it.

As you said... we'll see in on TV.


RazzO

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was at the final table for Doyle's last hand, and I'll tell you what I saw from my perspective.

As is often the case, the last hand is not what you should be focusing on, but rather the big hands that led up to that hand.

Doyle entered the day 2nd in chips and made a huge laydown to Chip Reese where he lost a sizeable amount of his chips. We don't know the cards, but Doyle said he laid down a big hand because he read Chip for strength. Chip later said after he won that he picked up KK against Brunson in that situation. I don't think Chip has any incentive to lie here after the event is over and the hand is going to be shown on TV anyway, so to Doyle, nice read. Here's the hand as reported on CP:

37. Doyle Brunson raises to $70,000 from under the gun. Chip Reese makes the call as does David Singer from the button. The flop comes 7spade3heart2club and Brunson bets $220,000. Reese raises to $440,000 and Singer folds. Brunson thinks for a few moments before folding his hand. Reese rakes the pot.


Throughout the day, this situation repeated itself, with Doyle losing big pots after laying down his hand or losing big coinflips (He lost a huge coinflip all-in to T.J holding KJ against 99).

On the last hand, Doyle was in the BB. There was already 27k in antes + 65k raise from Singer + 65k call from Bechtel + 20k BB = 157k. It cost Doyle 45k to call, giving him about 3.5:1 on his money. If he folds here, he has 80k, or 4 big blinds left.

On the flop, Doyle was facing a bet-raise and action was to him. He knew he was dead, but he had 8k left in a side pot that would have over 300k. Blinds were 10k/20k with a 3k ante. How can he fold here?

Doyle actually took about half a minute to think about his hand, chuckled, and tossed his chips in, knowing he was dead. He had a big smile on his face and was a little sheepish in showing his hand after Singer folded and both players showed. You'll see the hand on TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure there are no implications here that Doyle dumped. But keep this in mind. Doyle knows he has one maybe two WSOP's left. He went all that a way. A grueling 3 days. He isn't about to get that close to his record 11th WSOP bracelet especially in a historic tournament of that magnitude and not be trying his hardest to win it.

As you said... we'll see in on TV.


RazzO

[/ QUOTE ]

He was getting 3.5-1 3-way with J6o. He probably thought there was some chance that the limper would fold to the raise, in which case he gets 2.5-1 HU. If the limper reraises and the raiser folds, Brunson gets 3.5-1 HU. At this level, there is an excellent chance the limper will reraise or fold, rather than limp/call.

If Brunson folds, he may have to make a similar play with 4xBB in the SB. He could fold there and look to play a hand in late position with 3-3.5xBB. However, he would not have enough chips to steal the blinds.

I probably would fold here, but it is very close.

I am amazed at the know it all attitude of people who think Brunson made a fish play. Some donks don't understand odds and will criticize any play made with marginal cards late in a tournament.

They used to allow observer chat late in Party's big $200+ buyin tournaments and there were all these fish criticizing every standard play someone made. Like stealing and restealling with marginal hands, isolation plays, squeeze plays, and stone bluffs and semibluffs after the flop.

A good player doesn't just say I have J6o late the tournament so I fold. You have to play the situation.

You guys really think Brunson made an incredibly bad play because he called allin with marginal cards and you know better?