VERY deep $400nl Commerce hand

[BDub1]

I'm a donkey and a) I would not have limped preflop, and especially called a raise and a reraise with 92 suited or not. Given that the 2 bad bets were made, what to do now to mitigate the apparent stupidity. At least you were facing overpairs, possibly 2 larger pairs, sets. At what point did the top and boittom 2 pair look so enticing? Yes there were re-draws, assuming all of your cards were live.

To me, an easy fold regardless whether the donks at Commerce play in this manner, wait for a spot when you have better cards or a draw to the nuts. Just my $.02.

BDub1

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think the results were very important here. I really didn't think that this was that easy of a fold (maybe I am way off) with the odds given, my buddy only had to right about one in six times (the numbers might be a little off). PF is obviously bad, but anyway he called.

TURN 2 - he makes the boat

RIVER Q

BB immediately shows AA thinking he is good
UTG + UTG+1 muck
MP+1 starts raking the pot and shows (believe it or not) 7 2 offsuit for the worse boat.
My buddy starts to take the pot and then he finds out the the
SB has QQ for the two outer for about a $10k pot.

Like I said, the results were unimportant/predictable, but what I really wondered about was the flop play.

Obviously, there were at least a couple of overpairs that could draw out (most likely SB and BB) and possibly a straight draw (6 8 or 8 10), but is this such an easy fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

It needs to go exactly like this for you to be good:

JJ
KK
AA
bottom two

And the last two players need to be extremely loose as well.

If you shuffle it up any other way, there's no way 4 people get it all-in.

And it's usually more like:
KK
JJ
top two
set

[nath]

i can't wait to visit commerce

[itsjung]

thats SUCH a BS hand. i dont believe it

[CrazyIrishman]

Get some posting cred before you accuse people of making up hands.

[Lyric]

If you assume that all of the all-in players are equally bad, and will stack off with any overpair TT+, any two pair, any set, and any OESD, you should call.

Apparently, given the results, all of these players are indeed that bad, and your friend is about 24% to win vs all of them and their ranges. It's a good call:

Board: 9h 7s 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.3681 % 23.35% 00.02% { 9d2d }
Hand 2: 19.4450 % 18.40% 01.05% { AA, QQ-99, 77, 22, T8s, 97s, 86s }
Hand 3: 18.0983 % 17.16% 00.94% { 99+, 77, 22, T8s, 97s, 86s }
Hand 4: 18.0983 % 17.16% 00.94% { 99+, 77, 22, T8s, 97s, 86s }
Hand 5: 20.9903 % 19.64% 01.35% { 99+, 77, 22, T8s, 97s, 86s, 72s, T8o, 97o, 86o, 72o }

(I put 72 in the range of only the fourth all-in player.)

[Lyric]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone is a very aggressive calling station.


nh oxymoron

[/ QUOTE ]

"Aggressive call station" is not an oxymoron. One can be both extra aggressive and call too much at the same time.

[Kyle]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think the results were very important here. I really didn't think that this was that easy of a fold (maybe I am way off) with the odds given, my buddy only had to right about one in six times (the numbers might be a little off). PF is obviously bad, but anyway he called.

TURN 2 - he makes the boat

RIVER Q

BB immediately shows AA thinking he is good
UTG + UTG+1 muck
MP+1 starts raking the pot and shows (believe it or not) 7 2 offsuit for the worse boat.
My buddy starts to take the pot and then he finds out the the
SB has QQ for the two outer for about a $10k pot.

Like I said, the results were unimportant/predictable, but what I really wondered about was the flop play.

Obviously, there were at least a couple of overpairs that could draw out (most likely SB and BB) and possibly a straight draw (6 8 or 8 10), but is this such an easy fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I love LA