big pocket pairs in L08

[T50_Omaha8]

I once wondered about one question you asked--whether the fragile flopped nuts--ie nut straights, top sets, etc, should always be bet. I posted a hand on here a while back in which I held an AKxx with a flop of Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , and I held neither hearts nor clubs. I'm pretty sure I was playing full ring .25/.50 back then. Well it was bet to me and I raised, got one caller, and it was reraised to me, so I capped the flop, with the flat caller calling the cap.

The turn came a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] , making the probability my nut straight wouldn't be the nuts on the river well over 50%. Still, I capped the card with my fingers crossed. A third club came off and I called on the river; the idiot bettor showed down a naked nut club flush draw, hit on the river. I checked the hand history and the moron flat caller held a QT. So it turns out I was getting my money into a great spot after all.

But that is the kind of thing that will seldom happen once you move up and dollar bets get invovled in the game. The hands I was against are actually the WORST (ie best for me) hands I could realistically expect to be against, and I STILL lost. A more normal situation would be AKxx betting with me and QQ, JJ, or TT calling along. You could even be against nightmare hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , in which case you might as well just set your wallet on fire because an unlikely river that holds your striaght up will still only earn half the pot.

Maybe the moral of the story is that at the micro stakes level, probably up to the .25/.50 game, you should pretty much never slow down on the high nuts. But in bigger games, capping flops like

6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

or

3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

will kill you in the LR if the action is multiway, especially since 99.9% of the time you're only in the running for half the pot anyways. These flops suggest why big pocket pairs are so much less valuable than A2 as a holding. (If you hold the A2 in place of KK in either of those situations, you should obviously bet whenever you possibly can, and gleefully welcome flat callers.)

But note one hopeless element of my broadway flop. No matter what cards came off on the turn and river, my hand could NOT improve by the river. Whether I had a pair or backdoor flush draw in my hand I would have been better off because I have some faint hope of a 'plan B'.

Any set or two pair can fill up, but a flopped nut sriaght or flush cannot improve--you only welcome cards from the deck that do not counterfeit your hand. This also strongly suggests that in non-nut situations--like flopped baby flushes or non-nut straights--you should almost always fold if the action becomes stiff. Even if you do hold the best hand--which you will sometimes--you will still often get drawn out on anyways. The combined likelyhood of someone holding a better hand and 4th or 5th street scare cards coming along makes your hand -EV, in my opinion.