folding a set?

[Beachman42]

No analysis needed. Set over set means you are busto every time. Anything less on this board is bad poker. AA,KK do this all day on this board. QJ would be a little weak to EP raise, but hey, its an early hand in a live event. "Knowing" that villian can ONLY have JJ or QQ is incredibly weak here.

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
Um, fold if you hate money. If you hate money, stop playing poker. Therefore, if you fold here, you should stop playing poker.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahaha

[enkel1]

First of all. If this pot was heads-up, or at internett I would instacall.

Maybe Im a douchbag who hates money, but here is my thoughtprosess:

Villians raising range: {TT+, AQ+, AJs+}

Villian c-bets on flop, and get one caller, then a raiser. My raise (into both pre-flop raiser and caller) clearly says I can beat TPGK, so villian sees my range as {77, JJ, QQ, JQ, AQ (maybe KT, 9T)}. This narrows villians re-raise range to {JJ+}. The announce raise, put the call in, then count chips, before stating raise amount is usually consistent with a BIG hand, and imo pushes the range to at least 75% {JJ,QQ} and 25% {KK+}.

[allenciox]

That's a pretty narrow raising range to put a villian you have never seen before on. IMHO, villian would have to be super-tight to have that stringent a raising range in MP. I can see an unknown villian making the initial raise with other hands that he might play the same way, like QJs. Perhaps he would even play it that way with AKs with one of his suit on board.

You need about 22% equity in order to call. If opponent has JJ+,AQs,QJs then Pokerstove shows your equity to be 66.5%. Even if we restrict it to only JJ+ your equity is still 60%. That's because AA and KK are more likely than JJ and QQ since a Q and a Jack is visible. Even if we restrict to only AA,QQ, and JJ, we still get an equity for you of 47%.

[bestcellar]

BBV

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
That's a pretty narrow raising range to put a villian you have never seen before on. IMHO, villian would have to be super-tight to have that stringent a raising range in MP. I can see an unknown villian making the initial raise with other hands that he might play the same way, like QJs. Perhaps he would even play it that way with AKs with one of his suit on board.

You need about 22% equity in order to call. If opponent has JJ+,AQs,QJs then Pokerstove shows your equity to be 66.5%. Even if we restrict it to only JJ+ your equity is still 60%. That's because AA and KK are more likely than JJ and QQ since a Q and a Jack is visible. Even if we restrict to only AA,QQ, and JJ, we still get an equity for you of 47%.

[/ QUOTE ]

To the OP:

download pokerstove and get comfortable using it. Your thought process is essentially correct, but your conclusions are flawed because you do not have the quantitative analysis (the numbers) correct. In your overly simplified 75% JJ/QQ, 25% AA/KK, you STILL have the equity to call and this range is too tight for no read & this early in the tournament.

As I said earlier, not going broke to a larger set is a mistake. You cannot be that certain in this situation.

[enkel1]

Expanding the villians (who was more in early-MP on the 11 handed table) preflop raising range only adds QJ to the final range, but ok I can see him go broke on that hand.

The rest of your calulations make sense, so I guess I'm admiting defeat.

What if the flop went. check, check, bet, raise, all-in, call, call, me?

To those who says they're not folding AQ, what does AQ beat here?

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all. If this pot was heads-up, or at internett I would instacall.

Maybe Im a douchbag who hates money, but here is my thoughtprosess:

Villians raising range: {TT+, AQ+, AJs+}

Villian c-bets on flop, and get one caller, then a raiser. My raise (into both pre-flop raiser and caller) clearly says I can beat TPGK, so villian sees my range as {77, JJ, QQ, JQ, AQ (maybe KT, 9T)}. This narrows villians re-raise range to {JJ+}. The announce raise, put the call in, then count chips, before stating raise amount is usually consistent with a BIG hand, and imo pushes the range to at least 75% {JJ,QQ} and 25% {KK+}.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no way you get away here. You're just trying to rationalize it. Villain's range should be much wider than that. And he probably does the same thing with QJ, KK, AA, possibly AK or KT on the semi-bluff with the draw. If you lose to set over set, that's fine. It'll happen so rarely that if you try and find situations where you let yourself fold a set on the flop on anything other than a monotone board with a lot of players in the pot, you're probably screwing up.

Just get it in and be happy you played well if he tables QQ or JJ.

Basically, what Nez said.

[jason75]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls on button with 77

Flop: QJ7 rainbow

Villian bets 600, MP+1 folds, MP+2 calls, I think for 10 seconds, announce raise and make it 1800 to go.

Villian announces raise, puts in the call, counts his chips, and then pushes all-in, MP+2 folds.

Hero <font color="red"> BEATS VILLIAN INTO POT
</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

[seke2]

It's also 2200 to win about 6800 here. So even if your ranges of QQ/JJ vs. KK/AA are right, it's not even that bad of a pot odds call against the range you're giving him. If you add an occasional QJ, AK, or KT to that range, you're even better.