Happy to get it in here, or a hand to get away from?

[mack848]

$25 NL 10 handed

MP and CO have ~ $20, Hero covers. Both are 35/7 types who are pretty straightforward, but not terrible (comparatively). Post flop raises are rarely bluffs/semi-bluffs in this game. I would expect these villains to usually call with draws.


Hero is UTG+2 and has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

2 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP calls, CO calls, blinds fold

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot is $3.25)

Hero bets $2.50, MP raises to $5, CO calls $5, Hero ?


I can think of three types of hand that MP and CO can have: TPGK, flush draw and a set. I have $16.50 left I can get in and the pot is $15.75, so I am getting at least 2:1 here. Question is, is a set out there too often to play for stacks here vs. 2 opponents who like their hands vs. the pfr?

For those who think it's a push - would it be the same on a rainbow flop with the same action?

[The White Rabbit]

If they aren't horrible both TPGK and a flush draw are folding to a push while a set calls, so pushing doesn't make much sense to me. I like a call here, if they're straightforward they'll check their TPGK-like holdings and fire again with a set (so you can pretty much play perfectly). You might lead turn (to protect against fd's) and fold to a raise.

[smoothraise]

mack,

There has not been enough heat to fold here, imo. MP's minraise and CO's cold call are scary, but it could very well be marginal hands/draws. I advocate calling flop and checking any turn and re-evaluating from that point on.

MP has taken the lead in betting. We may not have the benifit of betting if checked around, but in some sense we are last to act on the turn.

I feel that the money we have left is significant enough to warrant a information seeking move rather than pushing which says "Draw and pay, if your ahead I will pay." I believe that the times we are giving cards too cheap will be more than offset by the times we fold to better hands on turn.

Fwiw, I rarely suggest "information seeking moves." This one is over marginal pot with a move that doesnt cost money that we bet. The money we lose is by giving too cheap cards if hands are such that we should push. I do admit opponents actions on many turn cards are going to difficult to evaluate in many situations.

I look forward to seeing others opinions, as I feel this is great hand to discuss. I have to sleep, but, I hope this is still in first page or two of ssnl when I wake.

[2+2 wannabe]

push please

MP can have AK/KQ/KJ/KT here, and CO could have a gutshot/flush draw very easily

I push and am probably 55/45 to triple up if both call

the reason I don't call is because half of the deck sucks on the turn (any broadway, any diamond)

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
If they aren't horrible both TPGK and a flush draw are folding to a push while a set calls

[/ QUOTE ]

tpgk and flush draw are folding about never at 25NL

[WoodyWoahzay]

Well you can't fold, and you can't really call and play the turn OOP so I'd just dump it in. KQ and a flush draw would fit your read, I don't think they have to have a set here but have never played NL25.

[Dan Bitel]

push

[matv]

push...i dont think its close

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
push please

MP can have AK/KQ/KJ/KT here, and CO could have a gutshot/flush draw very easily


[/ QUOTE ]

Trouble is, does the parlay occur enough to push; especially when they might both fold when they do have these hands, but will clearly call with a set?


If both call, I don't think I have anywhere near 50% equity.

Even if MP has AK/KQ and CO has a gutshot&flush draw (quite likely that a flush draw has a gutshot here), we only have about 40-42% equity. Of course, if they both call, it is much more likely that we have a 2 outer and have as little as 5% equity.


I really don't like calling the flop though. The likely flush draw needs to be charged. Also, I am usually going to have to play for stacks anyway, as the pot is nearing $20 and we only have $14 left with 2 streets to bet. These guys don't raise flops with hands they are folding very often, it is Pacific $25 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


Anyone think the flop is a fold?

[noggindoc]

[ QUOTE ]
push

[/ QUOTE ]