shortstack theory

[slcseas]

I never suggested to play loose poker. Playing one hand in every 10 is pretty tight if you ask me. One of every 18 to 27 is just asanine in my opinion. Basically all I'm saying is that you can have a similar or higher level of success picking your spots against specific opponents than praying to catch 1 of 128 playable hands.

Nobody ever answered my question in my original reply. Is this a buy short strategy, or just short stack play in general? For a buy short strategy, I would try this to double up one time. I wouldn't try to parlay it.

[slcseas]

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yeah a short stack not only means no implied odds for your opponents it means no implied odds for you, so since your money is going to be all in on the flop or you're folding you should restrict yourself to playing hands that have a high chance of being the best early in the hand.

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You don't need implied odds against your opponent with a short stack. In your initial example, you quoted being a 60/40 favorite on average. So you are taking an even money bet when you are being offered a 60% chance of winning. This is where your +EV stems from. The issue is attempting to parlay this three times. The style of play I suggested doesn't differ all to much from what is originally suggested. Instead of assuming you need to double up 3 times to attain your goal, you produce folds that will either maintain or gradually increase your stack. You then get all your money in with a single hand that stands to be a greater favorite that 60% and have the same final result.

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in your K10 example even though there is a reasonable chance you have the best hand right now you are giving yourself very bad odds with this play risking 20BB to steal 4. And you could get a very loose call here and still be behind...

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Does reasonable chance suggest 50% of the time? If so this is a good play. Assuming he folds 1 time in every 3, your 50% odds on the hand winning a showdown + fold equity equals +EV. Remember the variables, you are playing ultra-tight and he is playing loose and stealing frequently. I would say with these factors, you will produce a fold 2 out of every 3 times, and be close to dead even on winning a showdown.

[calc]

No I said reasonable chance not over 50%. There is no way I could think K10 suited was the best hand over 50% against a raise, even if it is a late position raise by a lag.

and it is nowhere near 50% odds to win if he calls. Sure he is raising with a wide range of hands but even then a lot of those hands are ahead, K10 is a very marginal hand in case you didn't realise. Any ace, any pocket pair, ak kq kj are all ahead. What do you think you will get called with here that you are beating? k9? 10J? 10Q? pretty unlikely. Yes I agree he probably will fold a third of the time to the reraise, but that will probably be when he is beaten. When you get called you will be a dog the majority of the time, unless there is something specific about this player you know, like he loves to limp in late position with monsters preflop if the field is thin and raises his junk to try to steal the pot. The nyour expectation changes a little...

[Louie Landale]

This one looks and feels correct. I notice that 1.71BB per cycle is more than 3 times the .4BB per attempt; that's because several all-ins in the cycle feature a stake of more than the 20 that gives the .4BB per cycle.

"You can't string together a series of +EV bets and get a -EV situation." Yes. But more importantly, to debunk the countless money management schemes out there: "You can't string together a series of -EV bets and get a +EV situation". Rephrasing in unimpeachable math: You cannot add positives to get a negative, and you cannot add up negatives to get a positive.

Anyway, I don't see the point in this strategy. Since the 34BB stack is a better gamble than the 20BB stack, then you should start with the 34BB stack. When the bigger stack is for whatever reason a lesser gamble (which can realistically happen if you fail to adjust the short stack strategy), then you should quit and join another game.

- Louie