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#1
07-16-2006, 04:22 PM
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Ehhhh I don\'t know you\'re crazy
Villain is 70/30/2.8 over about 200 hands
He's attempted to steal my bb from the sb every time this session so far (about 7 or 8 times). And instacapped anytime 3 bet pf. Party Poker Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $20/$40 6 players Converter Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, Hero calls. Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3SB, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Hero calls. Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2.5BB, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, Hero calls. river plan? call down regardless? muck if we don't improve? call any non-heart? muck the flop or turn? 
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#3
07-16-2006, 05:25 PM
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Re: Ehhhh I don\'t know you\'re crazy
You are getting a little better than 2-to-1 on a calldown and your read is that SB is autobetting any two cards. Looking at PokerStove, your equity right now is 37.6%. So calling down is (slightly) better than folding. Even if the river is the 5h (about as bad a card as you can see hit), you win about 16% of the time, which is just enough to call getting 5.5-to-1.
The main problem with this analysis is that you are pushing a small edge, provided your read is right. If he's really only pounding away with his best 80% of hands, then the hands like 53o and 64o and T4s that you would like to see in his range aren't there. Also, it's possible that he might c/f his weak hands on the river, so that calling his river bet is a losing play. All these considerations make calling down suspect. That said, your opp is probably just playing a simple bet, bet, bet, bet... strategy. I like a calldown here b/c it's fun, it's either +EV or very close to it, and it makes for a great BBV post when your J high is good!
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