4/180 - I can't POSSIBLY be ahead here right?

[Black Aces 518]

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This analysis doesn't take into account the idea that you need a stronger hand with each subsequent player into the pot. I mean, if 5 players go allin ahead of me preflop, I'm folding QQ from the BB. But if it folds to the SB and he goes allin, I'm instacalling with QQ.

However, this is a 4/180, and these people don't really understand that idea, so throw those chips in.

[/ QUOTE ] are you talking about preflop, or the flop? or both?

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I'm talking about on the flop. The poster I replied to said that none of the moves on the flop, taken individually, is scary. I said that that dismisses a very important concept in general, but luckily your oppnents generally don't understand it in this tournament.

[/ QUOTE ] Let's take each one in turn, using that concept. SB is the first to bet, and bets tiny, so his range is wide. BB comes over the top. He doesn't have to beat much to be beating SB. Then the UTG calls off his whole stack. Well UTG is short-stacked, so he can't wait around forever. But he also raised pf from UTG, which means either a strong Ace or a strong pair. Given his call, I think he has an overpair. He's folding AK or AQ. So I think he is beating SB and BB. So I think the order is SB<=BB<UTG<Hero. Which fits perfectly with your concept.

Now I'm not saying that my read, which is pretty specific, is absolutely right. I'm just saying that you're not folding because of SB's tiny bet. You're not folding because of BB's push. You're not folding because of UTG's call. So why are you folding? The combination of all 3? Well, you might be less than 50% to win this hand, but given the amount of chips in the pot, your pot odds are screaming for a call.

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Yeah, I agree with all of this. I certainly wasn't trying to dismiss your analysis, especially in this concept, just wanted to toss that idea out there, so other people don't apply that first analysis spot-on to other situations. Also, it really helps that the only read on UTG is "not very good", since he's 3rd in.

OK, let's stove some reasonable ranges.

Flop is 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB had 1600 preflop, called for 350, then led 350. How about 55-TT, A5-A8, any 2 cards between 4 and 8, 69, 2 diamonds, 89?

BB jams 1975. 46, 55-TT, 2 diamonds, 89, Q8-A8, 57, 78, A6?

UTG raised to 100, cold called your raise, then calls 835 more. AdKd-Ad9d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, 55-QQ?

This (if i did it right) gives us 20% equity. There's 5595 in the pot if SB calls and we have to call 1625. About 3.5 to 1. But, if SB folds, we now have 34% equity and is an easy call of 1625 to win 4660. Also, if we lose to UTG but beat SB and BB we still are OK. Also, I may be overstating SB and BB's chances because i gave them any 2 diamonds, and some are unlikely (AKd may reraise, 26d may fold, etc.), so flush draws may be a bigger part of their range. I'm new to PokerStove so if anyone has a better way to do it, I'm ears.