20-20 Flopped Nut Straight - I'm confused

fearlessfil · #1 07-10-2006, 11:42 PM

Ok this is my first attempt at using a hand converter bear with me….

Game was playing very wild; villain could have just about any holding here and has been known to get all in on flops with weak draws and sometimes completely random hands.

My read at the time was that he didn’t have the nut straight too. I am fully aware of the dangers of pushing the flop with the nut straight and no redraws.

Any comments on my play?

Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $20/$20
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2614.50
UTG+1: $417
MP1: $815
CO: $5058
Button: $394.50
SB: $13589.50
Hero: $2131.50

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with : : : :
3 folds, CO raises to $80, Button calls, SB folds, Hero calls $60 (pot was $200).

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($260, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $260, Button raises all-in $314.5, Hero raises to $1463.5, CO raises to $2612.5, Hero calls all-in $588.
Uncalled bets: $561 returned to CO.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4677.5, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $1203.5, Sidepot 1: $3474)

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4677.5, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $1203.5, Sidepot 1: $3474)

Results:
Final pot: $4677.5
CO shows 4D QH10H 5D 
Button shows 8H 8S10C 9C 
Hero shows 6S 5S 8C 5H 

Now here’s what is confusing me:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1825721
pokenum -o 4d qh th 5d - 8h 8s tc 9c - 6s 5s 8c 5h -- 6d 7h 4h
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing 6d 7h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5d 4d Qh Th 288 43.24 378 56.76 0 0.00 0.432
8s Tc 9c 8h 125 18.77 538 80.78 3 0.45 0.190
6s 5s 8c 5h 250 37.54 413 62.01 3 0.45 0.378

How is can I be so far behind with the flopped nuts here? It’s been a long session and I may missing something but this is really confusing me.

Silent A · #2 07-11-2006, 02:05 AM

It's because you have almost the worst possible flopped nuts: a low straight of the form -X--Y (where you hold XY) with a flush draw on the board and you have no redraws. The only thing that keeps your hand from being the absolute worst nuts is the fact that you hold 2 of the 5s (making it less likely that you'll split the pot).

Any heart, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 and you will no longer have the nuts. That's 27 scare cards after we subtract the 4 in your hand. And if the board doesn't pair on the turn, there will be 30 scare cards on the river. In comparison, you have only 18 safe cards on the turn, and 14 on the river. And it actually gets even worse if the turn is a diamond and someone had a backdoor flush draw. You are quite literally on a draw (one where you want all your scare cards to miss).

Actually, given the action on the flop, you could argue you're lucky your equity was as high as 38%.

Edited to add : The worst flopped nuts is really a naked low straight of the form -XY--, but yours is only a little bit better.

crockpot · #3 07-11-2006, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's because you have almost the worst possible flopped nuts: a low straight of the form -X--Y (where you hold XY) with a flush draw on the board and you have no redraws. The only thing that keeps your hand from being the absolute worst nuts is the fact that you hold 2 of the 5s (making it less likely that you'll split the pot).

Any heart, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 and you will no longer have the nuts. That's 27 scare cards after we subtract the 4 in your hand. And if the board doesn't pair on the turn, there will be 30 scare cards on the river. In comparison, you have only 18 safe cards on the turn, and 14 on the river. And it actually gets even worse if the turn is a diamond and someone had a backdoor flush draw. You are quite literally on a draw (one where you want all your scare cards to miss).

Actually, given the action on the flop, you could argue you're lucky your equity was as high as 38%.

Edited to add : The worst flopped nuts is really a naked low straight of the form -XY--, but yours is only a little bit better.

[/ QUOTE ]

not really relevant to this hand, but the -X--Y is substantially better since you can stack a player with Z-X--, which is impossible in the second example.

Silent A · #4 07-11-2006, 02:52 AM

True, I forgot about that. Though I can count the times I've been able to stack off a flopped understraight on one hand (not counting super short stacks).

heresjohnny · #5 07-11-2006, 05:13 AM

Getting all your money in with that trash hand is just terrible.

You're asking to be crippled by someone who's flopped the nuts, with a wrap to a better straight and flush redraws.

Yuck.

pwnsall · #6 07-11-2006, 10:02 AM

as far as i read the ev u are only behind 1 guy and u aren't behind much to him, if stack sizes were equal u are still making money. u are behind him because he is drawing to the best hand and neither of you have any hearts so out of 36 cards to come 9 are hearts which is much higher than a normal flush draw. odds programs take this into account when inputting cards but it's harder to do when actually playing the hand.

fearlessfil · #7 07-11-2006, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Getting all your money in with that trash hand is just terrible.

You're asking to be crippled by someone who's flopped the nuts, with a wrap to a better straight and flush redraws.

Yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok but given that:

[ QUOTE ]

Game was playing very wild; villain could have just about any holding here and has been known to get all in on flops with weak draws and sometimes completely random hands.

My read at the time was that he didn’t have the nut straight too. I am fully aware of the dangers of pushing the flop with the nut straight and no redraws.

[/ QUOTE ]

How would you play it then?

jhall23 · #8 07-11-2006, 01:45 PM

That two-dimes calc is a little misleading if you just take it at face value. You need to factor in the main pot and the side pot and not just how often you win the hand.

Check it out for your HU side pot with CO.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1826659
pokenum -o 4d qh th 5d - 6s 5s 8c 5h -- 6d 7h 4h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 6d 7h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5d 4d Qh Th 348 42.44 426 51.95 46 5.61 0.452
6s 5s 8c 5h 426 51.95 348 42.44 46 5.61 0.548

So you have an edge in the side HU pot.

It should be pretty easy to see why adding that 3rd players hand messes up your chances of having the best hand at showdown. Also in the 3 way pot you still have >33% chance to win that one which is all you need for a postive expectation in that pot.

fearlessfil · #9 07-11-2006, 04:00 PM

Ahhhh, that's what I was missing, thanks!

It all makes sense now....

And for the record I would still play this hand the same way against this opponent, it was the probabilities that were confusing me.