Hellmuth Can't make the Big Pre Flop Call

[TStoneMBD]

i dont give hellmuth much respect but i think you guys are forgetting that he did win the national HU championship last year so he cant be that bad.

also, if phil identified that his opponent was playing horrible HU, then it would be correct to try and play smaller pots depending on your edge against him in later hands. youre correct in knowing that phil plays weak-tight because he doesnt want to cash in on a small edge if it risks his tournament life because he thinks his future edges in the tournament will be bigger. this is correct ROI tournament thinking. however, phil might exaggerate his edge and probably does. its hard to tell if each of his folds are mathematically plotted regarding future edges or if he just folds strong hands on a whim.

its difficult to determine if phils grasp of ROI tournament theory is advanced or not. however, this is the same guy that was talking about folding AA preflop because he thinks his tournament edge is greater than 80-85%. based on this, his knowledge of the intricate math involved is pretty novice.

[boo5000]

I think a problem with that hand is that the coverage made it look as if Hellmuth got the info he wanted out of Todd with his "are you donking off your chips with AJ", yet he couldn't push back. I think everyone gets the impression that Phil makes outrageously good reads, yet still passes on situations where he "knew" he was ahead. It doesn't help that we only get to see these hands, and not the other ones in which he goes on instinct and takes down a smallish pot.

Another example is in one of the superstars, he puts Lindgren on KK or AA and is holding AQs when Eric pushes from 1st pos (like 5 handed or maybe 4). He knows he is behind, thinks about the call (tells everyone hes the only one in the world that could lay it down), but makes the call anyway. We see all these good reads, but its seems like a lot of the time they get shown specifically because Hellmuth loses.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

Good post.

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however, phil might exaggerate his edge and probably does.

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If you look back a year or so on 2+2 very many of the good tournament players online suffered from this syndrome as well, it sort of seemed to spread like an infection. The edge you can have vs ok opponents with shallow stacks in NL was vastly exaggerated. Today most players seems to have realized it and are willing to get all-in as only a slight favourite. If the average level of play keeps improving (as I am sure it does), Phil's current style will get far from optimal. However, who knows, maybe he is conscious about it and will adjust his game accordingly, he may be happy to get in as 51% favourite vs a tough crowd.

[Weir]

Even though I think he is an enormous tool, Phil is obviously a good player. I think his main problem is he has fancy play syndrome x 1,000. He makes it way too complicated and often is so intent on getting his money in with the best hand that he passes up a number of golden opprotunites to run away with tournaments.

[nath]

Phil Hellmuth folded QQ at the main event once because he didn't want to risk going out as an 80-20 favorite.
That's all you need to know.

[betgo]

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Phil Hellmuth folded QQ at the main event once because he didn't want to risk going out as an 80-20 favorite.
That's all you need to know.

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He was probably worried he was an 80-20 dog. He may be tight with big pots, but people act like his opponents' cards were face up.

[nath]

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Phil Hellmuth folded QQ at the main event once because he didn't want to risk going out as an 80-20 favorite.
That's all you need to know.

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He was probably worried he was an 80-20 dog. He may be tight with big pots, but people act like his opponents' cards were face up.

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You're wrong.

"The very next hand, at a different table now, I'm still talking about throwing away pocket queens when I pick up pocket queens again and open for $1,800. Incredibly, the big blind moves me all in! This time, I feel that my opponent has J-J or worse, but I still fold my hand faceup. The big blind shows 7-7. I don't mind this at all. After all, I could have gone out if he hit a 7. Besides that, who in WSOP history will ever lay down Q-Q in back-to-back hands for a single reraise?"

The same story appears in the Introduction to Kill Phil.

[BostonMetro]

There is a big difference between what you say and what you think. You only realize this with Hellmuth because he talks a lot during play.

Hellmuth says, "Are you donking off your stack with AJ?"
Hellmuth thinks, "AJ is certainly within your range and I have that slaughtered. I'll ask you if you have that and see if I get a reaction."

Hellmuth says, "I don't want to call all-in with the QQ even though I 'know' he has an underpair."
Hellmuth thinks, "My range of his holdings is skewed toward a smaller pair and away from AA, KK, and AQ here. However, this read is still not significant enough to make me put all my chips in here as a slight fave against your range."

Either way, he's a terrific player. He loves to announce his hand reads at the table, probably because he knows it will get him on TV and get people talking about him. And because he's often right.

[ed8383]

Phil is the best NL tournament player in the world, but he also happens to be the unluckiest NL tournament player in the world it seems. Who else gets sucked out more often than Phil?

[kagame]

i think folding AQ to AJ preflop with that large of a pot is probably one of the biggest errors you get an opportunity to make on a regular basis

im always thinking of his QQ back to back folds last year in the WSOP, first hand he was vs AK and the second vs 77

that second fold is giving up sooo much EV its absurd

good poker = exploiting edges

hes now a fish