Betting against Flush Drawers.

[black_drake]

Let's say both oppenents are at full buy in.

Raise PF with a premium hand. Flop comes 2 suited 1 rag. I have TPTK. Pot it. He flat calls. And you read is 100% that he's on a flush draw, most probably the nut. Turn comes blank.

What's your play? Do you just pot it and give him 2:1 odds? Or do you Push and get all his money in before the river with the best hand?

[cold_cash]

If he will call if I go all-in I would do that.

If he won't call if I go all in I would bet about 2/3 the pot.

[AJGibson]

You have to maximize you expectation rather than just betting an amount you think your opponent will call "No Limit Hold 'em: Theory and Practice" has some decent discussion on this.

If your read is spot on then there's no chance you're going to pay him off when he hits his flush, make a big enough bet to give him the proper implied odds to call. From you betting he may think he'll get your stack if he hits, but of course you won't pay him off and most of the time you'll get any money he 's called with.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to maximize you expectation rather than just betting an amount you think your opponent will call "No Limit Hold 'em: Theory and Practice" has some decent discussion on this.

If your read is spot on then there's no chance you're going to pay him off when he hits his flush, make a big enough bet to give him the proper implied odds to call. From you betting he may think he'll get your stack if he hits, but of course you won't pay him off and most of the time you'll get any money he 's called with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't my opponent calling a huge bet on the turn as a 4:1 underdog a pretty good way to maximize my expectation?

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]

Isn't my opponent calling a huge bet on the turn as a 4:1 underdog a pretty good way to maximize my expectation?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's an example of what I mean by maximizing your expectation. Say the pot is at $75 and you and your opponent have effective stacks of $500.

Your opponent has 9 outs to hit his flush giving him ~20% chance of hitting it on the river. If you make a 2/3 pot size bet $50 which your opponent calls your expectation is

125x0.8 - 50x0.2 = $90

i.e. you win $125 every time your opponent calls and misses the flush on the river, you loose your $50 bet every time your opponent calls and makes his flush.

In actual fact your opponent won't always call you bet, but we'll ignore that for the moment.

How offen will your opponent have to call an all-in bet to increase your expectation? When you go all-in you bet your remaining $500 at the chance to win $575, your opponenent will call X% of the time and fold the rest (100-X)% Of course 20% of the time when he calls your all-in you'll loose. Your expectation is now

575 x 0.8X - 500 x 0.2X + 75(1-X) > 90(your previous expectation)

Which works out to be X > 0.053,

Which means if you believe your opponent will call your all-in bet more than 5.3% of the time you have increase your expectation over a 2/3pot bet and you should go all-in.

If the chance of him calling your all-in bet is less than 5% then the 2/3 pot bet is the better option.

[cold_cash]

In my first post I said this:

[ QUOTE ]
If he will call if I go all-in I would do that.

If he won't call if I go all in I would bet about 2/3 the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then you said this:

[ QUOTE ]
hich means if you believe your opponent will call your all-in bet more than 5.3% of the time you have increase your expectation over a 2/3pot bet and you should go all-in.

If the chance of him calling your all-in bet is less than 5% then the 2/3 pot bet is the better option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which seems like exactly the same thing.

[Sadat X]

This example is very simple, because you are 100% sure your opponent is drawing to a flush. If you're playing 5/10, there's $240 in the pot right now and he's about 4-1 to make his hand. If he makes the flush, you're not going to lose any more money. The absolute minimum bet is $80. 80+240=320 in the pot, it costs him 80 to call, so you're giving him exactly 4-1.

In this situation, you want to bet the largest amount that your opponent will call. Pile up those Sklansky bucks.

Obviously, in most siutations, you won't be 100% sure what your opponent holds and a hand like TPTK can have huge reverse implied odds. I'd bet the pot most times in the situation you described.

[AJGibson]

[ QUOTE ]
In my first post I said this:


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If he will call if I go all-in I would do that.

If he won't call if I go all in I would bet about 2/3 the pot.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



And then you said this:


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hich means if you believe your opponent will call your all-in bet more than 5.3% of the time you have increase your expectation over a 2/3pot bet and you should go all-in.

If the chance of him calling your all-in bet is less than 5% then the 2/3 pot bet is the better option.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Which seems like exactly the same thing.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am quantifying what you said, i've taken your comment

[ QUOTE ]
If he will call if I go all-in I would do that.


[/ QUOTE ]
And changed it to:-

If there is more than a 5.3% chance that he'll call your all-in do it.

These two statements, while similar, are quite different, and importantly so. It's obvious that if 50% of the time he'll call your all-in then it is definatly the better move, you can tell that without doing any calculation. I've shown you that you only need a slight chance, about 6%, that he'll call to justify your all-in move over a 2/3 pot size bet.

[CHAx]

I typically do use 2/3 potting because it IS standard. However, any good LAG will call in a situation like this with a weak draw (6 outs) for 2 reasons. One, is that he/she knows you will fold to a river bluff if/when the board makes 3 to the flush. Alternatively, he/she will have a hidden stacking hand if it connects on the river. Thirdly, they can safely fold because they know exactly what you have based on your betting pattern and nitty play. Here's the problem with this play. Any good LAG can see what you have. Play here is too transparent. Also, the pot is bloated with a semi strong hand (assuming preflop raise, you do raise preflop with top pair top kicker hands RIGHT?). Problem is that this play just REEKS of TPTK or OVERPAIR.

I'm sorry but I seriously hate this line even though I do it all the time myself. But the hand becomes self trapping and you should be aware to push sometimes. Especially against tricky opponents or donkies who think flush draws are the nuts.