This is a call, yes? Reality check please.....

[tipperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
With the range you propose you are still 1.73:1 and it is still a fold.

The price of the hand for your JJ was simply too high. Break even point occurs at about 22+ with a lot of high paint card combination included.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm. I think you might want to recheck your odds calculator. I don't have my trusty pokerstove here, but it's obvious that JJ cannot be a 1.73:1 dog vs. a range of AJ+ and 88+. JJ must be the favorite against this range, probably 6:5 or thereabouts. Your description of the break even point is also in error by a very wide margin.

(And this assumes OTB/villain pushes with AA every time, which I think is a questionable assumption)

[greg44]

I think KK can make a smooth call as well. But I don't see how JJ can only have less than 38% (i think thats what 1.7:1 needs). Think of it this way

AA, KK, QQ are cancelled out by 77,88,99 SO = 50%

AK and AQ and KQ are about 50%
AJ is like 70%

This HAS to be > 50% plus the extra money from the short stack w/ his awful range shouldn't make this too hard to pass up imo.

[JFJB]

I assume you are at work. Please get to your pokerstove and make the calculations and get back to me. I will check your reply this evening at say 22h00 ET. Look forward to continuing this analysis.

By my calculation it is 1.73:1.

[AceLuby]

1.7:1 is a 63/37 odds. It doesn't even matter what UTG has because the side pot is bigger than the main pot. Given that, what is the range you are giving that makes you worse than a 37% chance to win w/ JJ? Post your results here.

[JFJB]

OK for some reason I had also A10 included and took it out. Puts the odds up to 1.85 or 54%. Still a fold anyway.

[PhatPots]

I like it. I would be much more inclined to call with QQ, but this is your chance to take the lead. It's close for me

[PhatPots]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a difficult decision when in the heat of battle. The first all in is in all evidence a no brainer to call. The real question is what is the range of the OTB? I think it is AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, 10-10 and maybe KQs. There are 72 hands of which 48 you are in a coin flip (55-45) 18 hands when you are dominated (20-80) and 6 when you dominate (80-20). You have to put in 5500 to win a pot of 8800 so you have 1.6 to 1 pot odds.

So 66% of the time you are 55% = 0.3667
25% of the time you are 20% = 0.05
and the last 8.3% you are 80% = 0.0667

So you are 0.4834 or a 2:1 underdog. The pot is offering you 1:6.

You should have folded.

The key in this analysis is the range of hands the OTG could have to make is play. You have to make an educated guess. You could disagree with my range but use the analysis above and try to figure out what range would have made a call mandatory in your situation. I highly recommand the exercise.

Hope it helps

[/ QUOTE ]


I love the analysis, but I have to think the range is wider. I could see 99, or even 88 maybe making this play. The OP should have given some descriptions of the button and short stack

[bobneptune]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm no expert in satellites, but I likely fold here.

You need to accumulate some chips before you can even think about folding into the money. Winning here will make you chipleader and put you in great shape, but you can't just look at the upside. I'm not sure you've got a greatest chance of winning here, and you're not so short that you need to gamble it up.

Shortie might be pushing with anything, but the button has to have some sort of a hand to isolate....

[/ QUOTE ]


i'm no expert, but with the stack sizes (shorty not being the big factor with the potential side pot), wouldn't you expect the button to want action w/AA-KK and NOT isolate ???

that makes JJ look a whole lot better to me.....

[PlayingInPS]

This is a pretty easy call to me.

[ QUOTE ]
This is a difficult decision when in the heat of battle. The first all in is in all evidence a no brainer to call. The real question is what is the range of the OTB? I think it is AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, 10-10 and maybe KQs. There are 72 hands of which 48 you are in a coin flip (55-45) 18 hands when you are dominated (20-80) and 6 when you dominate (80-20). You have to put in 5500 to win a pot of 8800 so you have 1.6 to 1 pot odds.

So 66% of the time you are 55% = 0.3667
25% of the time you are 20% = 0.05
and the last 8.3% you are 80% = 0.0667

So you are 0.4834 or a 2:1 underdog. The pot is offering you 1:6.

You should have folded.

The key in this analysis is the range of hands the OTG could have to make is play. You have to make an educated guess. You could disagree with my range but use the analysis above and try to figure out what range would have made a call mandatory in your situation. I highly recommand the exercise.

Hope it helps

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. 0.4834 puts you very near 1:1, it's not 2:1 underdog. 2:1 is 0.3333...

The pot is offering a whole lot better than 1:6. I don't have a clue how you got that number, but the pot is 8750 (300+600+50*5+1800+5800), and you need to put in 5800 to call. This is approximately 1.5:1 odds. That's some very, very nice odds.

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm no expert in satellites, but I likely fold here.

You need to accumulate some chips before you can even think about folding into the money. Winning here will make you chipleader and put you in great shape, but you can't just look at the upside. I'm not sure you've got a greatest chance of winning here, and you're not so short that you need to gamble it up.

Shortie might be pushing with anything, but the button has to have some sort of a hand to isolate....

[/ QUOTE ]


i'm no expert, but with the stack sizes (shorty not being the big factor with the potential side pot), wouldn't you expect the button to want action w/AA-KK and NOT isolate ???

that makes JJ look a whole lot better to me.....

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why the rest of my post says that the key is whether he'd flat call AA/KK and if he'd isolate with medium pairs.