BB Wager Logic Check

[pokeraz]

As I create a money line - ex COL @ WAS for tomorrow. I have WAS as -161. The Pinny liny is -147. I believe I have a bet here. Yet, even though I have a positive expectation, it is still laying a lot. Especially as a underdog type of guy. However, --

I can have WAS -1 at -102. I minimize risk while introducing the possibility of push. Fair trade? Faulty thinking?

I appreciate your thoughts.

[Josh W]

Lemme see what I can come up with here. 20% of Washington's wins have been by 1 run (6 outta 30), and about 28% of colorado's losses have been by 1 run (9 outta 32). I'll split the difference and say that IF washington wins, there's a 24% chance of it being by 1 run.

Let's say your number of -160 is accurate. This means that washington will win 61.5% of the time. 24% of this is 14.8%. So, to summarize:

Win: 61.5%
Win by 1 run: 14.8%
Win by >1 run: 46.7%
Lose: 38.5%

So, if my math is correct, you'll win this bet (WA -1) 46.7% of the time, lose 38.5% of the time, so laying only 2 cents would be worth it.

HOWEVER, if the pinny line is accurate (-147) (realy quick here), WA wins 59.5% of the time, win by 1 14.3% of the time, thus win by >1 45.2% of the time. They'll lose 40.5% of the time. So, laying 2c is still worth it here, but not nearly as much.

Of course, maybe the pitching matchup is such that a 1 run win is more likely.

If you have faith in your number, and don't wanna lay a lot of wood, I'd say lay the 1 run here. Maybe others (mrbaseball?) can chime in and shed more light on the situation.

Josh

[crockpot]

surely you are not going to use these small sample sizes to calculate the probability of a 1-run win? historically, it's about 32% of the home team's wins.

[beetman]

32% is WAY off. The home team wins by 1 run a bit less than 20% of the time.

Pinnacle's pulldown menu generally rips you off--they add vig in the pulldown when you buy points and there you're essentially buying a half run on the -1.5 line, so you're better off taking either the -1.5 line or the ML.

[hotintheserhinos]

Post deleted by craig

[beetman]

Thank you for your contribution. I have read your post, and will take it under advisement.

[Thremp]

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BAN ME I'M A DUMB [censored]

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FYP

[pokeraz]

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Post deleted by craig

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Man, did I miss someone flaming me? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
32% is WAY off. The home team wins by 1 run a bit less than 20% of the time.


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I think you misunderstood his post. He said 32% of home team WINS. Not that the home team wins 32% of the time by one run. If you do the math you will see that 32% of home team wins (not games) is pretty accurate.

[beetman]

Ah, I see what he's saying now. Yes, Saying that 32% of the time that the home team wins it's by exactly 1 run is reasonably accurate.