3/6 NL 6-max --- Flush on paired board call river ALLIN?

[nevereverwin]

I am sure he has boat or quads here, bcoz what other hands y expect to see played like this if that player is passive? I think 1010 is his most likely hand. If villain is stupid too then he might have lower flush but it would be really stupit to push here with lower flush or only trip 10 with say A or K as kicker... fold.

[terp]

this hand is a lot different if the second 10 comes on the river and makes the flush then. as the hand played out, this is a fold.

[ddubois]

He should be afraid of you having slowplayed a ten, but he's not. So while it's possible he has something stupid like T9, let's discount trips down to just combos of AT. Also, the number of ways for him to have a flush are pretty small given the AJT are all gone, and he called a PFR, but then again, he is a 57 vpip. (Can he have Qh5h?)

Board: Td Th 8s Jh 6h
Hand 1: 57.5758 % 57.58% 00.00% { JJ-TT, 88, ATs, KhQh, Kh9h, Qh9h, JTs, T8s, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 7h5h, 5h4h, ATo, JTo, T8o }
Hand 2: 42.4242 % 42.42% 00.00% { Ah3h }

You have to call 620 to win 1020. (.42)(1020) > (.58)(620), so it seems like you're getting the right odds to call, but you expect to lose more often than you win.

But if you eliminate all combos of trips/bluffs, you aren't priced in:
Hand 1: 70.3704 % 70.37% 00.00% { JJ-TT, 88, KhQh, Kh9h, Qh9h, JTs, T8s, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 7h5h, 5h4h, JTo, T8o }
Hand 2: 29.6296 % 29.63% 00.00% { Ah3h }
(.30)(1020) < (.70)(620)

On the other hand, he's more likely to check that flop with AT than JJ, because a normal person would be loathe to let a free card hit AQ/AK.

Tough decision. I call because I'm a limidonk calling station, I have a flush, and I have no respect for anyone with a 57 vpip, but it sounds like it's a mistake.

[sqvirrel]

[ QUOTE ]
you are making a case against your own argument. the fact that he is so passive (70/0 whatever) only means that when he DOES show big aggression (as in this hand), he probably has a strong hand. and you say hes not tricky, meaning he's straightforward. a huge allin overbet raise from a straightforward player means a big hand doesnt it?

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't know that villain is straightforward. All OP knows is a handful of stats and freely admits that he doesn't know how villain plays. So is villain passive and straightforward? Well the stats indicate otherwise.

First off preflop raise is irrelevant once the flop hits. What matters is post flop aggression and VP$IP as pfa is directly related.

Here is a player that is seeing over half the flops and is regularly taking an aggressive action post flop.

This isn't to say that a case can't be made for a fold, it certainly can, but to look at pfr and conclude that this is a meek, passive player is clearly erroneous.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't to say that a case can't be made for a fold, it certainly can, but to look at pfr and conclude that this is a meek, passive player is clearly erroneous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stated better than I could, thanks.

Bottom line, I'm not convinced this guy's not moving in with a worse flush or is a complete moron and moving in with a naked T here enough of the time for it to be unprofitable to call this all in. I'd call, expecting to win this pot 50% of the time, maybe more.

- C -

[snappo]

<u>Results</u>

I folded, he didn't show.

Thanks to everybody that replied.