Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18?

[csuf_gambl0or]

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csuf-- how many BB will you lose before considering that you might not be playing your A game? From all I have read here, a 200BB downswing in live games 15 or smaller is really rare.

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im playing the same game as i played a month ago, 2 months ago, same thing.

when june started it just went str8 downhill.





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You are approaching 300BB, no? What keeps happening in these games that has you down ~$6K?
-Curtis

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big hands not holding up, not catching draws, not catching cards, AA goes 4 bets pf then gets outflopped, Ace flops on KK, sick rivers, you know the story.

And unlike most people who set silly stop loss limits, im willing to put more money on the table when im stuck. If theres big fish, then i keep playing, and keep getting rivered.... this is why these losses are only from like 5-6 sessions.

but yes, this downswing is getting quite annoying and frustrating. nothing i can do about it except keep playing.

[VBCurtis]

Thirddan-- I've never considered the aggro factor when estimating bankroll, even though SD is a main input in the formula. I just assumed my live SD was the same as online, plugged in my estimated winrate, got a number under 300BB, and decided the big round numbers I'd read were good enough.
Every time I've played at Commerce, the pots were huge-- bigger than any online game I can think of. This random aggression likely results in higher variance (along with higher winrates), and means I need to build a bigger roll to do anything beyond take a shot at the 9.
In Vegas, the 4 and 6 games seem extremely passive, "honest", and low variance. I suppose the 300 number refers to most below-15 games in Vegas, and CSUF's June shows my need to rethink my BR needs to play commerce.
CSUF-- I'll read your reply again next time I have a big downer. It's hard to play the same when you're getting killed.
-curtis

[sternroolz]

Commerce $9-18.....

I've found good games every time I go, but like I said, mostly on weekends. Maybe it's my personality too. Sometimes I'm quiet, sometimes I'm friendly, and sometimes I'm loud. But I usually have a Corona in hand. I've sat down at a TON of tight tables, only to see every one go bonkers within 30 minutes or so. I would suggest that if you are angry/solid/wear sunglasses...ie anything anitsocial at all, that is the type of thing that helps kill action in a game and you may want to rethink your image at a table. For instance, the game I sat in Saturday night held the most action of the $9-18 games available that night. And it was typical for me...beer in hand, friendly, downplay my wins, etc. I got payed in multiple places, even on the river, almost every hand I was in.

As to the variance of this game....it's huge. I can see a decent player taking a $5.4K(300BB) downswing. I've been on runs where face pairs and flopped sets get continously run down. If you are playing aggro players and on a run where 1 out of ten face pairs is winning for a while, you will lose lots of money. In fact, I think that the only reason that the variance of that game is not even higher, is that so many people bluff, even with huge pots, and it gives you an additional few bets when you win(bluffer plus people calling the bluffer without regards to what anyone else in the hand might be holding).