Vegas 8/16-10/20 or Commerce 9/18? - Page 2

VBCurtis · #11 07-03-2006, 07:55 PM

Stern: thanks for the detail; it was all I was hoping for.

I understand 150hr isn't a big sample (~5000 hands), but it's what I have. I also have ~10K hands as a winner at 1/2 online to support my belief than I can beat 4/8 and 6/12 live, as well as non-results observations.

I've had only bad experiences at Bellagio, so I'll sweat the Wynn 8 next week, and plan on playing commerce 9 when I can tolerate a $1200 shot without bankroll worry.

Thanks again for not flaming my first thread.
-curtis

csuf_gambl0or · #12 07-03-2006, 07:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what do you look like stern? if you're a regular there i'm sure i've ran into you a few times.

[/ QUOTE ]

stern has a striking resembelance to Craig Feldspar from Malcolm in the Middle [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

csuf_gambl0or · #13 07-03-2006, 08:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My worst downswing was over $3K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am getting close to that number in the 9/18. Actually between the commerce 9 and the 20, and the oceans 8/16, i am down $5k since summer started. I played at oceans a few times after that jackpot situation at commerce, however the longer drive kinda got to me and i have reverted back to the commerce 9. if i hit another table share, then so be it.

you still play the 9? i thought you had moved to the 20? i was in the 9, last friday. the games were no where near as wild as i wanted and i dropped a rack.

thirddan · #14 07-03-2006, 09:50 PM

the last couple times ive played the 9 i haven't been that impressed...seems hit/miss last few months...

VORP · #15 07-04-2006, 02:45 AM

The Vegas games will most likely be tougher, but they are also more passive which means less variance. I can see this having some appeal if you are taking a shot.

The Wynn 8/16 often times plays very similar to Party 1/2. Lots of limping and very little raising preflop. And when you raise they always check to you and when you bet they decide if they want to call or fold. Pretty straightforward.

csuf_gambl0or · #16 07-04-2006, 09:35 AM

well fug. i just got back from oceans. dropped another $700 in the 8 game.

there is no end in sight.

VBCurtis · #17 07-04-2006, 01:49 PM

csuf-- how many BB will you lose before considering that you might not be playing your A game? From all I have read here, a 200BB downswing in live games 15 or smaller is really rare. You are approaching 300BB, no? What keeps happening in these games that has you down ~$6K?
-Curtis

thebeebster · #18 07-04-2006, 05:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
From all I have read here, a 200BB downswing in live games 15 or smaller is really rare.
-Curtis

[/ QUOTE ]

say what now?

VBCurtis · #19 07-04-2006, 06:44 PM

OK, a few links for what I was talking about: (sorry, I don't know how to make links work well)

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post3937755

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post3949785

Tommy's worthy of worship around here, so perhaps his input isn't reflective of the swings of mere mortals. PokerBob is "rattled" by a 200BB live downswing. I was only pointing out to CSUF that by the time you're down 200BB live, you should be taking a serious look at your game, as it doesn't happen often.

In general, I believe that the extra attention paid to each opponent when playing live versus multitabling usually results in a higher winrate and/or lower variance compared to multitabling online. Many bankroll noob questions are answered with 500BB online, 300BB live (both for low-limit play) for just this reason. If CSUF had just 300BB for his live limit, he'd be nearly broke. An earlier reply in this thread mentioned $27/hr at 9/18 over a decent (for live) sample-- that's 4.5 BB/100, roughly. Again, winrates that high are not going to lead to 200BB downswings often, if at all.

I've experienced a 200BB downswing online in my first 35K hands, but no more than 75BB so far in 300 hrs live (10K hands?). These are small samples, but fit with the notes in those links.

thirddan · #20 07-04-2006, 07:43 PM

VB,

knowing Csuf's winrate is not enough to evaluate the bankroll he will need for his game...bankroll requirements are a factor of both winrate and standard deviation...so if his winrate is 4bb/100, but his deviation is high (which is often the case in crazy/aggro live games) then his bankroll should be larger than someone is a super passive game...