AKs and can't find a raise

[djoyce003]

if you can't find a raise in this hand, where on earth do you find a raise?

[4_2_it]

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Even money draw to the nuts??


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You are a little worse than to 1 to 1 to hit your flush by the river. That was my frame of reference (of course I am assuming a push and that villain doesn't have AA all the time when he calls).

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Aren't you 35% to make the flush by the river. 1.85-1?

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Sounds right. My phrasing was bad. Any spade A or K helps hero. The board pairing might help hero. He could be drawing to between 9 (flush only) to 20 outs (spades A,K, board pairing if villain has aces up --- of course you have to discount some of these outs so call it closer to 13) twice.

[centja1]

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If Villain made a set or two pair on the turn, is his over bet too big?

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From his perspective, if he has two pair or a set, it is almost certainly the best hand right now. I would most likely lead for 3/4 of the pot in his situation.

But, what i think is the most interesting part of the hand reading here is that he best 1/3 pot on the flop and then 1+1/3 pot on the turn. I mean, we have to conclude that the Jack helped him somehow, right?

In my view, the beauty of the 3/4 pot bet after betting 1/3 or 1/2 pot on the flop is that your opponent still has no idea what you have. You could still have AQ or now have top two pair or second set. You could have had AA all along.

I definitely think his overbet was a poor decision unless he knows he has a worse hand, which is getting less and less likely with that Jack on the turn.