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[mrbaseball]

Okay I lied. Just wanted a few more hits on this thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It's about BASEBALL!!!!!!!!!

A couple of decent edges out there today. Nothing really off the hook but some nice bettable plays.

I really like the BrewCrew today against Minnesota. Brewers at -107 is tasty because they should have a much better chance than that. Twinkies are hot though and playing great baseball. They are now 8 games over .500. Todays starter Silva is not the reason why. In Silvas starts the Twins are only 4-9. In his defense though he has been much better since a stint in the bullpen. Silvas claim to fame is a ridiculously low walk total. This season only 1.17 per 9. Walks are bad so this is good. Problem is his strikes aren't that great and guys tee off. He has given up 18 bombs in 84 inning for 1.92 per 9. And his OPS against is whopping .904 and he has a low K rate of only 3.43 per 9.

Capuano for the Brewers is perhaps the most overlooked and under rated pitcher in baseball. He doesn't walk many either (1.9 per 9) and he has a great K rate at 8.15 per 9. And unlike Silva he is stingy with the long ball giving up only 10 in 116 innings (.77 per 9). The Brewers are 1 game under .500 but you can't blame Cappy. They are 12-5 in his starts and if they had a few more like him they would run away with the NL central.

The offenses are fairly equal. Minny has scored a few more runs (4.81 per game vs 4.59 per game) but a lot of that can be attributed to the DH. Brewers have a slightly better EqA at .265 to the Twins .263. However Twins do get the bullpen advantage.

But this line skewed and has a definite a starting pitching mismatch. Brewers should be -130 favs here and they aren't which makes this play very attractive to me.

Take a look at KC/STL too. KC had a very nice (but sweaty) payoff last night and they are playing decent ball right now while Cards continue to struggle. Both starters sorta suck with simlar numbers. But Redman is a veteran who knows how to pitch and is a lefty. Cards struggle with lefties at 13-18 for the year. And even with Prince Albert back in the fold the Cards can't hit a lick lately. Over the past 10 games KC has been scoring at a 6.73 rpg clip to the Cards paltry 3.72 rpg pace. That fat +190 line looks pretty good to me again just like it did yesterday. Cards get way too much respect with a bum like Ponson and KC gets no respect for their recent resurgance. Cards have a losing record with Ponson on the mound, they have a losing record facing lefty starters, and their offense is sputtering so getting +190 against in this situation is looking real good.

I like a few others too but too long already!

Good luck!

[Jayhawk]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay I lied. Just wanted a few more hits on this thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It's about BASEBALL!!!!!!!!!

A couple of decent edges out there today. Nothing really off the hook but some nice bettable plays.

I really like the BrewCrew today against Minnesota. Brewers at -107 is tasty because they should have a much better chance than that. Twinkies are hot though and playing great baseball. They are now 8 games over .500. Todays starter Silva is not the reason why. In Silvas starts the Twins are only 4-9. In his defense though he has been much better since a stint in the bullpen. Silvas claim to fame is a ridiculously low walk total. This season only 1.17 per 9. Walks are bad so this is good. Problem is his strikes aren't that great and guys tee off. He has given up 18 bombs in 84 inning for 1.92 per 9. And his OPS against is whopping .904 and he has a low K rate of only 3.43 per 9.

Capuano for the Brewers is perhaps the most overlooked and under rated pitcher in baseball. He doesn't walk many either (1.9 per 9) and he has a great K rate at 8.15 per 9. And unlike Silva he is stingy with the long ball giving up only 10 in 116 innings (.77 per 9). The Brewers are 1 game under .500 but you can't blame Cappy. They are 12-5 in his starts and if they had a few more like him they would run away with the NL central.

The offenses are fairly equal. Minny has scored a few more runs (4.81 per game vs 4.59 per game) but a lot of that can be attributed to the DH. Brewers have a slightly better EqA at .265 to the Twins .263. However Twins do get the bullpen advantage.

But this line skewed and has a definite a starting pitching mismatch. Brewers should be -130 favs here and they aren't which makes this play very attractive to me.

Take a look at KC/STL too. KC had a very nice (but sweaty) payoff last night and they are playing decent ball right now while Cards continue to struggle. Both starters sorta suck with simlar numbers. But Redman is a veteran who knows how to pitch and is a lefty. Cards struggle with lefties at 13-18 for the year. And even with Prince Albert back in the fold the Cards can't hit a lick lately. Over the past 10 games KC has been scoring at a 6.73 rpg clip to the Cards paltry 3.72 rpg pace. That fat +190 line looks pretty good to me again just like it did yesterday. Cards get way too much respect with a bum like Ponson and KC gets no respect for their recent resurgance. Cards have a losing record with Ponson on the mound, they have a losing record facing lefty starters, and their offense is sputtering so getting +190 against in this situation is looking real good.

I like a few others too but too long already!

Good luck!

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I am getting better at this... Just posted my 2 plays for today (before reading this), and they are the same two!

Good luck

[dixie_flyer]

thanks for your insight...one question: can you recommend a good online source for stats?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
can you recommend a good online source for stats?


[/ QUOTE ]

ESPN has the most extensive but it drives me crazy because of the slowness due to all the extranious crap it loads on every page and the popups my popup blockers don't block.

I mainly use ESPN, Jim Feist, Baseball Prospectus, and USA Today.

[WaimanaloSlim]

I resent the false advertising embedded in the title of this thread.

At any rate, are there any opinions about this prop bet at Sports Interaction?

What will Rush Limbaugh get busted for next?

9/1 Steroids
11/1 Marijuana
16/1 Cocaine
25/1 LSD
33/1 Morphine
66/1 Crystal Methamphetamine
100/1 Crack
250/1 Heroin

Also, is anyone keeping up with Canadian Idol?

[NhlNut]

thanks Mr B.
hope they come in.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

lol i was suspicious of 'mr baseball' but still clicked =P

n1

[brendanb438]

I say the Brewers on the over 50 hot dogs at +212! This one is money in the bank.

Brendan