NL200 - "I'm going to get you"

[cts]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

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I think hero has too much equity to fold the flop. It's not a variance based decision, it's an EV one.

[Big_Jim]

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[ QUOTE ]
it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

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I think hero has too much equity to fold the flop. It's not a variance based decision, it's an EV one.

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Definitely.

There's too much money in the pot, and not enough behind to fold here.

Furthermore, villian could easily have AK, or a possible bluff, or a scared pair like JJ, and fold, which is huge.

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's a tossup, now that you're in the flop.

about $150 behind and you know your flush outs are good, your A and (less likely Q) might be good.
getting about 1:2 if he calls your push plus a tiny amount of fold equity.

so it is just the right odds to push, you can either push or fold up to you. mathematically it's the same, it's just up to how much you like variance.

later,
illmatic

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I think hero has too much equity to fold the flop. It's not a variance based decision, it's an EV one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely.

There's too much money in the pot, and not enough behind to fold here.

Furthermore, villian could easily have AK, or a possible bluff, or a scared pair like JJ, and fold, which is huge.

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what do you do if he checks behind and the turn is a brick

[Big_Jim]

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what do you do if he checks behind the turn is a brick

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I think that this will almost never ever happen, but if it did, I suppose I would fire out a bet, and fold to a raise.

[illmatic]

hmmmm... I get a feeling for what you are saying, but I'm not sure how to put it into words that convinces me intellectually.

how much equity do we have in the pot, given that we put only $50 of the $200 into it? We have $330 or so behind and only $50 invested, I really don't hate a fold here, although I might not play that way.

I think we can exclude the bluff here given the RR and the decent pot bet, AK is a possible holding.

If there is fold equity, I am good with the AI but with the past history, I think the fold equity is nil here. the guy is calling.

So we have only $50 invested in the pot and now we are getting just the right odds (not +EV odds) to draw.

I think it's a thin EV move either + or -.

thoughts?

later
illmatic

[Big_Jim]

To give you an idea of how much equity we have here...

Giving him an incredibly nitty range of AA/KK, we still have 42% equity

Board: Td 7d 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.0539 % 42.05% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 57.9461 % 57.95% 00.00% { KK+ }

Even if he were to open push on the flop, we would be getting 1.3:1 pot odds, so we're taking only slightly the worst of it, as a 1.5:1 dog.

In the actual scenario, we still have some fold equity, vs some of his holdings (AK in particular), and will also have better equity, since his range is probably wider than just AA/KK.

Seems like a very clear push, to me.

[cts]

Jim's numbers illustrate well while folding is throwing away money.

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with the past history, I think the fold equity is nil here. the guy is calling.


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Huh? I would say that the past history makes it more likely that the villain is bluffing. He's 60/40 and he's "out to get us."

[illmatic]

I think you've really just underscored my point... it all depends whether we think there is fold equity or not, and that's the difference. I think there is no fold equity here, but you disagree. If there is zero fold equity, getting 1.3 to 1 on the push/opp call as a 1.5 to 1 dog is a bad move. If there is significant fold equity and/or opp range is larger than you are doing OK to push, but it's not the juiciest push in the world either.

isn't that fair to say?

later
illmatic

[Haiku]

Keep in mind the 1.5:1 is based on a range of KK+. Given the past history and villain's stats, I think we can agree his range is at least slightly wider than that.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
To give you an idea of how much equity we have here...

Giving him an incredibly nitty range of AA/KK, we still have 42% equity

Board: Td 7d 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.0539 % 42.05% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 57.9461 % 57.95% 00.00% { KK+ }

Even if he were to open push on the flop, we would be getting 1.3:1 pot odds, so we're taking only slightly the worst of it, as a 58/42 = 1.38:1 dog.

In the actual scenario, we still have some fold equity, vs some of his holdings (AK in particular), and will also have better equity, since his range is probably wider than just AA/KK.

Seems like a very clear push, to me.

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FMP

Add in Just QQ, and we're basically even money. If any weaker hands are possible at all, it's clearly +EV.

Board: Td 7d 2c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.2828 % 43.28% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 56.7172 % 56.72% 00.00% { QQ+ }

1.31:1