NL25 FR megadraw - petard away

munkey · #1 06-29-2006, 11:01 AM

Hi all, first hand post so be gentle...[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

I was reading this post A discussion on monster draws when you have no FE, considering I have a nut draw and a 3 way pot does the same advice apply.

I occasionally play AJs UTG+1, not very often but mostly in 3rd position onwards. Villan is unknown and BB probably a pot padder, though Villan did call my PFR rather quickly.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2.65
Hero: $25.20
MP1: $33.10
MP2: $13.15
MP3: $10.35
CO: $25.65
Button: $22.90
SB: $10
BB: $9.40

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($4, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button raises to $5, SB folds, BB calls, Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] ,

I find playing draws especially hard.
I put him on Kx, Qx, KQ , 44, a smaller flush or str8 draw, and possibly QQ-AA or a combo draw - basically anything that connected with the flop.

I have 9 NF outs, 3 str8 nut outs and maybe one for the Ace -but its probably not live, so ~ 24% and 48% equity on turn and river combined.

What is Hero's best line, given that this is NL25 where Folding Equity ->0 .

vulturesrow · #2 06-29-2006, 11:10 AM

I like a call here, but the only problem with it is that none of your draws are well disguised. However you will probably get some more money out of him, as any likely hand he has will probably put more money in the pot on the turn. Part of the problem is your weak lead. Lead for four and now you get closer to a point where a 3bet ai is more reasonable. Going AI here is little bit over the top. Also at this point I want to keep BB in the hand, as he is likely drawing dead unless he is being retarded sneaky with a good made hand here.

Slade19 · #3 06-29-2006, 11:18 AM

I'm a complete novice. So I'll just say what I think and someone can tell me why I'm totally off-base.

I think you call this bet and see what the turn brings.

You have several nut club outs, except possibly the king.

Any 10 gives you the nuts.

However... I'm not at the point where I can calculate if this is a profitable call or not, and perhaps that's why I went busto with my first deposit... I'd call this and fold the turn if he prices you out if I don't hit.

Actually, I'll give it a shot...

You're getting a little better than 1:5 pot odds. You have probably 13 guaranteed outs with what... 47 unseen cards? You're paying 1:5 for a 1:3 shot.

Call that and rethink it at the turn.

Fold if the board pairs.